Well the dust really hasn’t settled on the Brexit referendum this summer and new Prime Minister Theresa May is ready to get her hands dirty on the subject pretty soon. Wednesday will see a Cabinet meeting which she has called and every minister there will be charged with making a plan that will “make Brexit work” for the government.
While the referendum results swung in favour of Britain pulling out of the European Union, nothing has happened since the result other than a lot of talk and speculation. The beginning of the withdrawal process won’t even start until Article 50 is triggered, which is when Britain officially signal their intent to pull the plug on their union.
Online betting site Betfair have a massive 18.0 price on Article 50 being invoked during the 2016 calendar year which looks highly unlikely. The option for it getting kicked into motion after July 2017 has been backed into a price of 1.72 meanwhile at Betfair. So there appears to be no hurry for the ball to start rolling on Britain starting its withdrawal and not even May’s calling of the cabinet to discuss this is likely to get anything done this year.
What it will do is send punters to the 2.0 price on the Article being triggered in the first half of 2017 though. What will enhance that is the fact that May has been working to find a way to get the Article triggered without even having to go the MP’s for a vote. Through legal advice the Prime Minister has been told that she can just go and do it on her own and that of course cuts out opposition, because it was revealed most MP’s wanted to stay.
If May was just to pull the trigger and initiate the Article 50 on her own volition though, that would show an autocratic power that probably wouldn’t put her, or her party in particularly good standing at the next election. There are enough pollers out there who wanted to remain in the EU that the Conservatives getting back into power after just ploughing ahead without MP’s getting a vote would probably ruin them and indeed divide the cabinet as well.
Not everyone in the cabinet wants to pull out of the EU as well, making things even more difficult for the Prime Minister. This could be really treacherous waters for May’s Government as she risks pulling her own party apart by taking action or having a stern message sent by MP’s that they think that Britain should remain if they are asked through a vote. The leaders of the negotiation though, Liam Fox and David Davis are in favour of Brexit.
