The Grade 3 Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick is the feature race in the UK this weekend, though whether it can still claim to be a viable Grand National ‘trial’ is a contentious issue.
Gordon Elliott had four possibles engaged at the four-day stage but only one Irish runner, the Mouse Morris-trained Dromnea, has stood his ground and he’s a general 16/1 chance with his stamina to prove over the three miles and five furlongs. I’d also pass over Ballyheigue Bay and Loose Chips on modest efforts last time in the same Kempton race in which Foxbridge (a best 16/1) finished fourth.
Betfred Classic Chase Trends
The average number of runners in the past eight renewals (it was abandoned in 2009 and 2010) is only 14 runners and that could be the field size in 2016 with Pete The Feat finishing unplaced at Catterick on Thursday. It hasn’t been easy finding recent winners, however. Only one favourite has won in 10 years, though six of those winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or shorter.
Paul Nicholls has a terrific record in the Classic Chase having trained three winners from just five runners during the past decade, including last year’s winner Hawkes Point. Alan King has saddled two winners from his last seven runners but has a better level-stakes profit thanks to D’Argent and West End Rocker. Nicholls run last month’s Kelso winner Vivaldi Collonges this Saturday while King is represented by Doncaster scorer Sego Success and Newbury fourth Midnight Prayer – both the latter pair are previous course winners and all three have been prominent in the ante-post betting.
Race-fitness is usually a pre-requisite for this marathon so it’s a worry that What A Good Night hasn’t run since early November.
Algernon Pazham blundered his way around Aintree last time before coming to grief and may be in need of a confidence-booster. Stamina is a concern for De Kerry Man while Red Devil Lads has only had a week to recover from his slog through the mud in the Welsh National. Russe Blanc is 25/1 with Coral to give Kerry Lee a second big-race success in eight days but the grey would be a surprise victor off his current mark at this level. Houblon Des Obeaux, though fairly handicapped, is another with current jumping issues but Venetia Williams can still grab this big prize with RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE.
The general 10/1 quoted against the 2013 winner looks excellent value as he’s been back to something like his best this season. The 11-year-old made all over a slightly shorter trip at Haydock last time and never looked like being caught. Obviously, a 6lb higher mark will make life tougher as he’s now 11lb higher than when successful two years ago. But he’ll be taking no prisoners again and still has a light weight compared to some. Robbie Dunne has never lost faith in the gelding and can be guaranteed to get the best out of him again.
Betfred Classic Chase Current Sponsors’ Odds
Sego Success (6/1), Midnight Prayer and Vivaldi Collonges (7/1), Houblon Des Obeaux (9/1), Rigadin De Beauchene and Algernon Pazham (10/1), De Kerry Man (11/1), What A Good Night (12/1), Foxbridge, Pete The Feat, Dromnea and Russe Blanc (14/1), Red Devil Lads and Ballyheigue Bay (16/1), Loose Chips (20/1)
