York was blessed with fine weather for the first two days of this year’s Betfred Ebor Festival but the storm clouds have been gathering – literally!
Strong winds have been pushing rain up from the south west so expect major changes to the good to firm going as it doesn’t take much of the wet stuff to turn the going testing on the Knavesmire.
Betfred Ebor History and Trends
The Betfred Ebor Handicap is run over one mile and six furlongs for horses aged three years or older and is the most valuable flat handicap in Europe.
Established in 1843, the race is now one of the staying highlights of the Flat season carrying total prize money of more than £275,000. Trainers target it with their premier stayers with many past winners using it as a springboard to tackling Group company.
It’s the northern hemisphere’s equivalent of the Melbourne Cup and only once in the entire history of the race has a horse managed to win the event twice and that was almost 100 years ago. The roll of honour includes dual Champion Hurdler Sea Pigeon and smart stayer Further Flight but this is not a race in which fancied horses have a particular good record with all but one of the last seven winners starting at double-figure odds. Only one favourite has won in 14 years.
Some ‘experts’ used to argue that a high draw was a disadvantage in the Ebor but the facts never backed that up. If anything, it pays not to be near the inside rail as horses tend to come down the middle of the course on the Knavesmire nowadays and they may even head to the stands’ rail if the ground turns soft.
The possibility of easy conditions could make a mockery of the ante-post betting as several of those who have been well backed prefer quick going. Only one recent winners has been older than six and none have carried more than 9st 4lb to victory. That last stat is a bit misleading as the weights are rising in line with the higher class of entry for the Betfred Ebor but more than half of the last 15 winners had run at least three times that season and won over at least 1m4f.
SHE IS NO LADY ticks all the boxes and has the added bonus of Frankie Dettori in the saddle. Trainer Ralph Beckett will have been delighted by the darkening skies as his filly was just beaten in a Listed race over 2m at Sandown last time when the ground was soft. Successful over 1m6f at Chelmsford previously, it looks as though the four-year-old has been aimed at the race and the general 14/1 could be a few points shorter on the day of the race if the going eases.
I’ll also be helping myself to a bit of the 20/1 with Coral about BATTERSEA who is a very classy stayer who has been lightly raced since a successful winter campaign in Dubai.
Betfred Ebor Best Current Odds
Ivan Grozny (6/1), Antiquarium (13/2), Seamour, Heartbreak City, Kinema and She Is No Lady (14/1), Quick Jack and Elidor (16/1), Oceanographer, Battersea, Shrewd, Tawdeea and Vent De Force (20/1), Oriental Fox, Seismos and Top Tug (25/1), Fun Mac, Sir Chauvelin, Ballynanty and First Mohican (33/1), The Twisler (40/1), Havana Beat (50/1)
