Recently I have been scouring the “net” to see what is “Flavour of the Month” etc. I came across a thread on a forum in which the writer gave sketchy details of his interpretation of BTTS. He hasn’t been “proofing” for long, three Saturdays, in fact. That’s not what interests me, however. What does come up is his strike rate. He covers Scottish Premiership, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 as well as the five English leagues I’ve looked at in the recent past. He selects the best nine matches each match day from these leagues, according to his rating system. It’s not the selection method I’m interested in. It’s his success rate. Up to now, he has had 18 correct plus one void from twenty seven selections. A little above 66.6%, which is better than the best in the five English leagues. Even though he has a good success rate the odds are a problem. A mean average appears to be around 1.66. At this level it would be necessary to have SIX winning selections out of NINE. Again we’re at that 66.6% mark. However this level of winning bets would only give approximately ONE point profit. At a level single point win on each selection. The suggested bets are 4 match accumulators. This would necessitate a slightly better level of SEVEN winners from each nine selections to ensure a profit. Even though this is only ONE more successful match it would appear to be bucking the odds. Not something which is recommended.
So it will be necessary to find a different route to find a successful answer to the problem.
Our FIVE leagues seem to have settled at a fair level of BTTS. The holiday period has provided very little change in each league’s average. The most noticeable being the Premiership dipping below 60%.
Perhaps a voyage into the European leagues will pay some dividends. A quick check on each of the major European leagues gave the following figures.
Italy 96/180 53.3%
Spain 87/170 51.2%
Germany 85/153 55.5%
France 85/190 50.0%
Scot Prem 68/118 57.6%
Surprisingly the Jocks come out on top of this particular pile. It does appear though that foreign defences are a little stronger than those in the English leagues. One thing worth noting however is, BTTS matches tend to come in batches on the same day. For instance there were a couple of Saturdays when Scottish matches returned 5 out of six games. Some study of these streaks will pay dividends in the long run. In reality, any match is an even money bet to end with goals being scored by both sides. Also, and even money bet with only one, or neither side scoring. Working within such a restricted confine, finding “VALUE” can be a daunting task. It’s clear that some hard work needs to be applied to find a strategy/system for weeding out the chaff. There is an alternative which might well suit some punters. In a large majority of games, getting OVER even money is there for the taking IF you back against the flow. Bet that there will only be one team doing the scoring. Whilst stats tell us that there will be fewer winners with this bet, the “extra” on the odds will often make it well worthwhile.
Current form is a “must”, for taking in to account a teams scoring possibilities. Also. don’t forget head to heads. One aspect of form that does require close scrutiny, is a teams AWAY ability where scoring is concerned.
Teams from the middle half of the league table are quite likely to hit the net against better placed opponents than against the lesser able sides.
Something else to look at, is, teams seldom go more than two games without scoring.
Hope that 2013 is profitable for us all.
(This article was written on the January 7th by our expert Cyril but our editor was very busy and did not manage to publish until now. Sorry for that!)