Derby v QPR Betting Preview
Will it be the Rams or the R’s joining Burnley and Leicester in the top flight of English football next season? This is the richest match in English football and one side stands just 90 minutes from glory. Can Harry Redknapp make an immediate return to the top flight, or will Steve McLaren’s impressive Rams deliver on favouritism?
Derby v QPR Betting Odds at online bookmaker Paddy Power
Derby 7/5, Draw 9/4, QPR 2/1
Online bookmaker Promotion
There is a great promotion running at online betting site Paddy Power this one. If the Play Off final ends in a draw after 90 minutes, then the bookie will refund all losing bets placed on the First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct score and Scorecast singles on that match. Paddy Power customers can also get a free £5 in-play wager every day and enjoy 100% Acca bonuses too. New customers registering with them can get up to a free £50 bet as a welcome bonus.
Derby v QPR Betting Tips:
The stats in the Play Offs lean towards the Rams here, as they finished third in the regular season. Since the Championship Play Offs came into being, the team finishing third in the league standings have been promoted to the top flight the most times. As for the team who has finished fourth, in this case QPR, that is the finishing spot which has produced the fewest teams gaining promotion. Steve McLaren’s Derby saw off Brighton in their play off semi final, and it was with some ominous ease as well. After taking a 2-1 win on the south coast, they romped to a 4-1 win back at Pride Park. Striker Chris Martin netted in both of those game and he is trading at 11/10 in the anytime goalscorer market. He is certainly carrying the form as he has scored six in his last seven, and Derby overall have fired in two or more goals in seven of their last eight matches.
However, the Rams haven’t gone that well against QPR lately. They took a 1-0 win in the Championship in February at Pride Park over the R’s and that snapped a six match winless streak against the Londoners (D3 L3). They have delivered well in the Championship play offs, winning four of their last five, including including their most recent final back in 2007 over West Brom. The Rams have power up top, as Steve McLaren’s men finished the Championship season as top scorers, so you would expect them to do most of the pressing. They have form on their side, going unbeaten in their last eight matches and winning seven of those. Since former England boss McLaren took over at the club, only Leicester have won more league games than the Rams have across the top four English tiers. They have also won six games this season from behind, so they don’t lie down.
Charlie Austin will be the key man for QPR, as they need his goals. He has scored five in his last five games and is trading well at 8/5 in the anytime goalscorer market. Harry Redknapp has vast experience in his side, of the 15 players used in their semi final against Wigan, his players had notched up 2088 Premier League games between them. Only two of them, Charlie Austin and Yun-Suk-Young have never played in the top flight. So it could be precious experience that will help them out at Wembley, but they start as underdogs because of current form. Their defence fell away badly over the final stages of the season, and they managed just a W3 D3 L3 record over their last nine games. It took an extra time winner for Rangers to get past Wigan in the play-off semi’s, and despite promises of attacking football, QPR will look for stability first at the back. But they aren’t carrying the overall threat and confidence that Derby are.
Prediction
The Rams clearly carry the bigger attacking threat in this one and are just running hot at the moment, carrying more conviction in their play and confidence. No reason not to back them at good value of 7/5.
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Form (all competitions)
Derby WWWDWW, QPR LWDWDW
Stat Attack
QPR’s Charlie Austin have five goal sin his last five games
Derby’s Chris Martin has scored six goals in his last seven
Derby have won just one of their last seven against the R’s
The Rams have won four of their last five play off games
QPR have won just three of their last nine matches
