Sometimes, it’s just not worth betting against the obvious.
Sri Lanka won a first-ever Test series in England on their last visit, in 2014, but you can get 25/1 with Paddy Power that Angelo Mathews’ squad repeat that feat this summer. Even though England have lost four of their last six Test matches at Headingley, where the series begins, there looks a massive gulf between the sides nowadays.
Sri Lanka have lost their greatest-ever batsmen, Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene, since 2014. Fast bowler Dhammika Prasad is injured and unlikely to play much of a part in the series. Veterans Tillakaratne Dilshan and Lasith Malinga don’t play Test cricket anymore and their country has won only six of 16 Tests in the last two years, losing nine. They’ve managed just one draw in that time, which outlines their batting deficiencies.
In their last 20 Test innings, Sri Lanka have reached 400 only once and 300 on only five other occasions. Several times, they have been bowled out for 200 or less and you are not going to win a Test match often when that happens.
That said, the early-summer English weather might yet give them some respite so I wouldn’t be hurrying to back a 3-0 England series win at 9/4 with Paddy Power. Though, with rain around, England’s main strike bowlers Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad are going to be in their element and could rip through the Sir Lankan batting line-up in next to no time. A 2-0 correct score to England is more attractive at 2/1.
England are a very good Test side nowadays, as they showed by recapturing the Ashes last summer and with a 2-1 win over top-ranked South Africa in the winter. But you could argue that the top order is still unconvincing. Alex Hales and Nick Compton struggled in South Africa while James Taylor’s enforced retirement has left a hole at number five. James Vince will likely get first chance in that position.
But skipper Alastair Cook looks back to his reliable best and Joe Root is pure class. Fans of Steve Smith would argue but, in most people’s opinion, Root is the best batsman in the world at present and his Yorkshire colleague Jonny Bairstow has also started the season with a flurry of runs, cementing his place behind the stumps at Test level ahead of Jos Buttler.
Root is a best 2/1 to be Top England Batsman in the series and Bairstow a big-looking 14/1 with Ladbrokes. With the exciting-but-unpredictable Ben Stokes completing the top six, England will always have the potential to score big and score quickly and that puts even the top teams under pressure – Sri Lanka are a long way from that tag.
Mathews will be under tremendous pressure when he comes to the crease but the Sri Lankan captain is stubborn and tenacious and you wouldn’t bet against him being his side’s Top Batsman in the series at a general 7/2.
