First Goal Losers in English Premier League

Recently I read an article on teams which concede and then have the ability, or luck, to equalise. I immediately found myself wondering how these games ended up. Did the outcome depend on whether or not the underdog scored first or whether the favourite got off to a good start. Now unfortunately my available stats don’t tell me who scores first unless the the half-time score is to NIL. So I began to try and make use of the stats I do have to hand. So I went back to an old favourite. The half-time score. And the score that interested me most was 1 – 1. But without any idea who had scored first. (Hopefully I can revisit this concept when time and stats allow). The original article stated that if the underdog scored first then the stronger side, evidently the favourite, would be expected to reply. But what happens if the underdogs are the equalising team? Something to find out about later on. I did however set about finding how these games ended and what a surprise I got where the Premiership was concerned.

Naturally there weren’t to many games which would end the first-half equal at one goal each but they did show some very interesting outcomes. After 35 weeks there had only been 29 such games. Surprisingly there was a less than expected number of home wins. (41.3%). Draws (24.1%) came out about as expected but Aways (34.4%) were over the expected norm.
However looking at things from a different angle figures weren’t all that different either. From the 26 games played so far 12 (46.15) were won by the better placed side in the league standings. Lower placed sides won 7 and there were 7 games drawn. Scoring in these games wasn’t outstanding tho’. 6 scores of 1 – 1, 4 of 2 – 1 and 6 of 1 – 2. (55.1%). Maybe something to look at in more depth. It is rather surprising at the lack of goals in the second half of these games. A general expectation for “average goals” is around 1.4 goals in the first half of games, rising to 1.6 in the second half. So more than half of the games played ended with 3 or less goals. So perhaps these games were actually within the “expected” parameters as far as historical figures stand.

In general there have been less than the expected number of 1 – 1 half-time scores this season so far. The previous two seasons being 44 last season and 43 the season before. A breakdown of the 2012/13 season shows 44 games ending 1 – 1 at half -time. They then gave final results as follows: Homes 13 (29.5%). Well below the normal home win “expectation” which is around 45 to 50% over the normal season. Draws (19) came out at 43.1%, and Aways 12 for 27.2%. Theses stats show a very marked sway in favour of games ending as draws. Under usual circumstances draws can be expected to turn up at around 25% of matches. So some room here for thought, too.
Looking at things from a different angle teams who were better placed in the league table came out on top only 14 times, (31.8%). Worst placed of the two teams came out on top on 11 occasions, exactly 25%. The other 19 games ended all square. (43.18). Most popular scores in these results were 1 – 1 (11), 2 – 1 (6), 1 – 2 (6) and 2 – 2 (8). Here again something to look at with 31 of the 44 (70.4%)games ending within this small range.

Season 2011/12.
Here we had just one fewer games ending the first-half at 1 – 1 than the previous season. Only 13 of these games ended in a Home win. Slightly below the following seasons performance. There was a marked difference between Draws and Aways for the two seasons but the fact remains that the Home win rate is well below par. It does appear that when the home side are held at 1 – 1 at half-time, something seems to dictate that the home side doesn’t always come back as we would usually expect. Even the better placed teams when playing at home, seem to find they have a hill to climb. Under normal circumstances games, over a season will usually work out at very approximately 2 home wins, an Away and a Draw in four games. This isn’t a rule of thumb but is accurate enough to compare what is happening in the matches being surveyed.

The bare stats for this season are 43 games which ended 1 – 1. There were 15 Home wins, 14 Aways and 14 Draw. Goals were again grouped around the smaller scores. 27 games ended with 3 or less goals. 9 @ 1 – 1, 8 @ 2 – 1 and 10 @ 1 – 2.
With these figures there is plenty of room to play around with Correct Score bets.
Another stat that requires looking at is that of the side placed highest in the league table. It would appear that once the score reaches 1 – 1 the
expected dominance of the better placed side doesn’t always come into play. Why?
There must be plenty of opportunities for traders to lay some of these “results”. Especially the shorter priced Home teams. A word of warning. When these scores occur in the early season be a little on the wary side. The Best Placed teams are only really there on sufferance until the early form settles down. Careful with selections until around week 10 of the league campaign.

This has been a funny season in the Premiership. The demise of Man Utd and the rise of Liverpool bringing an old fashioned look to the league table. Liverpool’s ability to score goals at their present rate has also been a revelation. Along with Man City they are headed for over the hundred goal mark. This alone will have a marked effect on many different stats. So be prepared to treat your favourite strategy/system with a little extra respect.There are some sides who are quite resilient. They can go behind but somehow find that extra bit of “get up and go” to pull themselves out of the mire. Just as there are sides that go behind and throw in the towel. This second kind seem to do it regularly. So it may be worthwhile knowing which sides can be relied on to roll their sleeves up and those that just let their heads drop and hope for better next week. It’s also worth knowing which sides can take the lead and HOLD on to it.
At first glance this may not appear to be too important but give it a little thought. When do you get the jitters? How about after your selection has scored and they need to hold on for your forecast to come about?

A few stats may not go amiss at this point. During the last seven seasons there has averaged 349 games in which goals have been scored. That leaves an average of thirty-one scoreless matches. So not too many 0 – 0 draws likely to make a mess of most punter’s forecasts. Over an average season 43 teams which score the first goal will go on to be beaten. just a touch over one per week. Sixty-nine teams that score first will lose their lead and the match will end all square. finally The first scorer in the game will go on to win in 237 matches. These stats have been rounded as required. One stat is fairly consistent, that of the team to score first and them lose the match. The smallest number to do so in a season is 39 and the highest number to do so is 52.

Broken down stats for the past seven seasons are as below.

First Goal Final Result Stats

By themselves the bare figures aren’t much use. However use them in conjunction with other stats and we begin to build something of interest. We can look at previous seasons and note which teams consistently fall into one or other of our three groups. Teams likely to be of interest are those which DON’T lose a lead and those which can turn round the match after conceding first. Last season Man. Utd. conceded first in 9 matches but ended up winning them. They scored first in 22 matches and won 19 of them, losing none.

Teams play 38 matches each season so I have found those which when having taken the lead either go on to win or draw in at least half of their matches.

2012/2013 first goal - final win/lose

2011/2012 first goal - final win/lose

2010/2011 first goal - final win/lose

2009/2010 first goal - final win/lose

2008/2009 first goal - final win/lose

2007/2008 first goal - final win/lose

2006/2007 first goal - final win/lose

The first thing that emerges from the above stats is that there is a very stated consistency. The same teams appear time and again.
However as with most sets of stats there is often a little hiccup. Or at least something to make you think for a minute or two. E.g. Although Chelsea appear in the scoring lists every season, they also find themselves amongst the teams which take the lead and then lose, in two seasons returns. To show how these anomalies occur I’ve logged them alongside the “win/draw” stats.

In the main stats there are a total of nine teams. Seven of them appear on more than one occasion. Newcastle and Aston Villa were just a flash in the pan. The other seven are the teams you normally expect to find in the top seven places in the league table. The point this seems to make is that class and form will always tell. Check thru’ the second column and note how many of the sides are or have been in the lower divisions, during the lifetime of the stats. It’s stats like these, often completely overlooked by the punter, that compilers use when making the match odds.
As can be appreciated, these stats are readily available for the more important leagues but when we drop further down the league pyramid, stats become a little harder to obtain. To anyone who has a deep knowledge of the lower leagues and can compile stats in the same vein as these, what a start he’ll have over the compiler. The more remote the stats are, the more likely the punter will be a step ahead of the compiler.

A little later on I’ll look at the flip side of these stats and see what more different knowledge we can garner.
Be lucky but bet responsibly.