The last couple of seasons has seen a sharp rise in the number of goals scored in the English game. Games which in the past have provided a nail biting finish are now throwing up three, four or even more, goals. Teams renowned for having watertight defences are shipping goals for fun. Or so it would appear. The following stats may raise a few eyebrows.
The Premier League has a good record so far this season where OVER 2.5 goal games are concerned. After 10 games, Fulham and Man.Utd lead the way with NINE games going OVER 2.5 goals. Followed closely by Southampton with eight such games and Everton with seven.
In total FIFTEEN teams have a 50% record of OVERS up to date. Arsenal, West Ham, Sunderland, Stoke and Aston Villa are the sides whose games have been tight affairs. All are averaging below 2.5 goals per game. Although West Ham have been involved in 6 games going OVER 2.5 goals.
The usual suspects continue to score as they have done in the past but they are also conceding at a rate to give their managers grey hair. Man Utd have scored 26 but have given away 14, already. Only seven teams have conceded more goals. Arsenal are bucking the trend giving away only 8 goals. Their problem at present seems to be their inability to find the net themselves. Man. City are in a similar position. Along with Sunderland, they have conceded less than a goal per game. Sunderland’s problem being they have only scored SIX goals in their TEN matches. Best to leave these two sides out of any considerations until they show some real consistent form.
Before the last week-ends games 54.1% of games had ended as OVER 2.5 goals per game.
Premiership teams worth considering/forgetting for you OVERS betting. Totals are goals, for and against, added together.
Man.Utd and Southampton both have a 40 goal haul in their games.(Their respective goals for and against are reciprical but in reverse. Southampton being 26 against and 14 for). Fulham have 37. Everton and Chelsea each have 32. ‘Spurs have 31 and Reading 30.
Teams to forget about until they change their ways are Sunderland with 15 goals and Stoke with 18.
The Championship has a slightly better record than it’s big brother. Almost 58% of games played ending OVER 2.5 goals.
Only 6 sides have failed to record at least 50% of games going OVER 2.5 goals. Birmingham, Charlton, Wolves, Blackburn, Barnsley and Brighton. Puzzlingly, only Brighton and Charlton have failed to average at least 2.5 goals per game. A head-scratcher in itself. Brighton having failed to score in SIX matches is part of their problem. Charlton on the other hand have only failed to score in three games. They do, however, have a tendency to end up in games ending 1 – 1. Both probably worth ignoring until they mend their ways.
Championship teams for your notebook.
Burnley 57, Bristol City 53 and Millwall 52. Crystal Palace 46, Blackpool 45, Middlesborough 44, Cardiff 44, Bolton 44 and Sheffield Wed 44.
Teams best forgotten, at least for the time being, Brighton 29, Leicester 35, Blackburn 35, Charlton 34, and Wolves 34.
For those of you who follow the lower leagues, the CONFERENCE will be right up your street. With an average moving steadily towards 60% of games going OVER 2.5 goals a little bit of study may well bring large rewards. Returns are quite interesting. WOKING have been involved on 0VER 2.5 goals in 15 of their 17 games.(Their total goals for 17 games being 64. With 33 of those going into their own net), and Luton in 12 of 16 matches. Only FOUR clubs fall below a 50% return. These include both Grimsby and Wrexham, who are the top four in the league table. These two sides have the best defensive records in the league at present. They appear to be content to grind out low scoring wins. If either, or both, were to find a prolific goalscorer they’d probably be fighting it out for first place.
Most sides having played 16 games we are looking for those that have a total goals return of at least 48. There are TWELVE teams which meet this criterion.
Whilst there would appear to be a case for following this league closely, there will almost inevitably be a mean look about the prices offered by the bookies. The ideal place to look for a little value will be on the exchanges, especially when punters are prepared to back their own teams irrespective of their logical chances. Unbelievably this still happens even
in these well informed days.
Team to follow. Woking 64, Cambridge 56, Nuneaton 53, Southport 53, Luton 52, Ebbsfleet 52, Hereford 52 and Macclesfield 51.
Teams to forget for the present are, Grimsby 34 goals, Kidderminster 35, Wrexham 39 Braintree 40, Alfreton 42, Gateshead 43, Forest Green 43 and Hyde 44.
Backing Over 2.5 can in certain circumstances offer a chance to HEDGE your bet. Backing OVER at 2.0 or there about offers a good chance to get out early if there is an early goal. It does revolve around the odds offered for UNDER 2.5 immediately there has been that early goal. AS the offer is often around 4.00 an astute bit of staking can guarantee a good return.
An alternative would be to wait for the early goal and then LAY OVER 2.5, but there wouldn’t be much difference in the odds. No more than a penny or two.
Obviously to really make this strategy pay, it will be necessary to update the stats, at least on a weekly basis. This may sound a little like time wasting to some punters but it will pay-off in the long run.
I will endeavour to update the stats I have for the LEAGUES ONE and TWO and put the necessary stats on here as soon as it’s possible.
Be careful with your bets and even more careful with the cash you use as your stakes. Don’t stake any cash you cannot afford to lose and BE LUCKY.