It is the most famous jumps race in the world. We are talking about the Grand National of course and the annual renewal gets its run on the weekend at Aintree. This is a racing thrill like no other, seeing 40 horses line up at the start (which is a huge task in and of itself) and then there is the heart-pounding action of watching them go and take on that four and a half mile course. This is the ultimate test of racing endurance basically and more often for punters, this ends up being like picking a needle out of a haystack in terms of selecting the winner.
The off is set for 5.15pm and one of the beauties about this famous race is that you have huge prices on the runners right throughout the field. Rule The World came home first last year, stunning the field with his 33/1 victory. He bucked a pretty big trend last year was officially a novice on his run last year although he was a second season chaser. That was the first Grand National victory for a novice since back in 1958. That just goes to show how tough it is to pick a winner out of this one. There are stats and trends aplenty when it comes to looking at Grand national Betting and we’ll get to that. First up here are the odds.
Grand National Betting 2017 Winner Odds
Vieux Lion Rouge – 10/1, Definitely Red 11/1, Cause Of Causes 12/1, More Of That 12/1, Blaklion 14/1, One For Arthur 14/1, The Last Samuri 14/1, Pleasant Company 16/1, Ucello Conti 20/1, Saphir Du Rheu 20/1, The Young Master 20/1, Vicente 25/1, Highland Lodge 25/1, Rogue Angel 25/1, Thunder And Roses 25/1, Raz De Maree 28/1, bar 40/1
Grand National Betting 2017 Promotion
It is all about grabbing as much value as you can as well as insurance for your Grand National betting. Online betting site Bet365 have gone Non Runner No Bet for the big race on the weekend which means that if your selection fails to get to the start then you will get your stake refunded. Bet365 is also Best Odds Guaranteed for the Grand National 2017 and that means that if the starting price ends up being bigger than what you backed your selection at, you will get paid out at the bigger price so you don’t have to worry about losing out on value! Go and register an account with online betting site Bet365 and enjoy a 100% matched deposit bonus and enjoy other great features like live racing streams and 4/1 ITV Bonuses where you will get a risk free bet for landing a winner at 4/1 or bigger in a live televised ITV race.
Grand National Betting 2017 Preview
Bigger Priced Runners are value
One thing that may throw off punters on backing Vieux Lion Rouge or Definitely Red who has been trading as joint favourite with some bookmakers, is that no horse has won the Grand National since 2005 after heading the betting market. That’s right, not since Hedgehunter took the 2005 win has a favourite landed a win in the race and in fact, no horse under the price of 14/1 has landed the National since back in 2010. There has been enough big priced winner recently to bypass the front runners in his field. In the last five years in the Grand National there have been 33/1, 25/1, 25/1, 66/1 and 33/1 priced winners. That is an average of 36.4/1 so there’s nothing wrong with going big on this one.
It is a numbers game?
Strangely, or coincidentally, whichever way you look at it, two of the last three winners of the Grand National have been wearing the number 29. Going off this year with that number is the Paul Nicholls-trained Vicente at a price of 25/1 with Bet365. In the last ten editions of the Grand National a winner with a number 1 through 9 has come home three times. Among the frontrunners this year in the low-numbers you have The Last Samurai at 14/1 wearing number one and More Of That at 12/1 wearing number two. Number six in the race, Roi Des Francs may be worth a flutter at around the 50/1 mark with Bet365 as he is wearing number six and that is the number which has won the Grand National more times than any other number in the last fifty years (seven wins).
Winners Age
The Grand National was always a race for experienced, seasoned campaigners. You would naturally gravitate towards the older horses for the race. But there was perhaps a significant shift last year when all but one of the first 16 across the line were single-figured in age. 17 of the previous 26 editions of the Grand National has seen a winner of a double-figured age. Last year only one runner aged ten or above managed to actually complete the course. Rule The World followed up the triumph of Many Clouds from the year before, making it back to back second-season chasers winning the National. So the modifications to the race may be favouring the younger runners and eight year old Vieux Lion Rouge finished seventh here last season as a seven year old, the age of which most horses struggle to make an impact in the race.
Staying the Distance
The race is a little shorter now and there have been changes made to the fences but it is still the longest race in British racing. So you need a stayer and then some. Because of the changes to the setup for the race, the pace is getting quicker which means that even more stamina is needed because of that. The minimum thing that you are looking for in this one is a horse that has won, or at least come close to winning over three miles before. If you can pull out a winner a three and a half miles, such as Many Clouds who had won the Hennessy that season, then you are in a good spot. Last year Rule The World had finished runner up at the Irish National. So look for those stamina beats. Each of the last 45 winners of the Grand National had previously won over at least three miles. Thirteen of the last 20 winner of the Grand Nationals have been placed or have won a National (of any description) before.
Staying in the Saddle
This is where it gets tricky to look back too far because of the new modifications. The jumping has gotten a little bit easier which means that you aren’t necessarily looking for an expert over the jumps anymore. Look back to 2013 when Auroras Encore won, he had six falls/unseated rider outings in his career, not exactly making him a brilliant jumper but still landed the national win. Only four of the last twenty winners of the Grand National have had more than two falls/instead rider outings, but then again, two of those four winners of the National who had had more than two career falls/unseats have appearance in the last five editions.
Form carrying over the Cheltenham Festival doesn’t seem to have any bearing on producing a Grand National winner. Just one National winner since 1961 had previously won at Cheltenham that same season, so skip the Cheltenham attendees from this season, which crosses Cause of Causes (16/1) off the list. There is a nod towards previous Aintree runs of course. Nearly one third of the last sixteen Grand National winners has been out in the previous seasons’ contest. Eight of the last sixteen had appeared at least once before in a race at Aintree. So there is a big of an Aintree Factor in among all of that. It’s probably worth avoiding any previous top four finishers at the National itself though, just one of the last 74 top-four finishes have come back the next year to go and win the race outright.
The Price Is Right
This is perhaps where it is really starting to count. Where to look in the betting market. Do you go short, do you stay in the middle, do you go long each way? Well, seven of the last ten Grand National winners have been at least at a price of 25/1. So that cuts out a decent chunk of the front runners. Just four favourites have won in the last twenty years of the race and even though 16 of the last 26 winners have been in the top eight in the betting market, things are getting harder and harder to call with the modifications to the race. It basically points to longer odds value again.
Grand National 2017 Predictions
So with all of that in mind, who is our selection for the Grand National 2017 betting at Bet365? We are running with the hot tip that is Blaklion. This, following on from the last two winners is a second-season chaser and the RSA Chase winner had a decent Betfred Grand national Trial finishing second there. The stats stack up, because he has only ever fallen once and he went well in the Hennessy as well, so there are no worries about his stamina. He is also trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has won the race twice before. Our longer priced option will be Vicente, trained by Paul Nicholls who won last year’s Scottish National.
