All the meaningful trials for next month’s Investec Derby have been run and the field is beginning to take shape. But 2000 Guineas winner Churchill will not get the chance to prove his stamina and compete for the Triple Crown – he’s due to run in the Irish 2000 Guineas and will probably be kept to a mile.
Investec Derby History and Trends
The first running of the Derby Stakes was at Epsom on May 4th, 1780. But, in those days, it was open to three-year-old colts and fillies and run over a mile. There were nine runners, and although Lord Derby won the toss of the coin to decide the name of the race, it was Sir Charles Bunbury who owned the first winner – Diomed. The Derby distance was extended to a mile and a half in 1784.
Towards the end of the 18th century, Derby Day had established itself as not only a major sporting event but also ‘The Londoners’ Day Out’. That remains the case with the Downs always packed with viewing platforms at a premium. The 1913 Derby produced the most sensational race in its entire history when a protesting suffragette – Emily Davison – brought down the King’s horse by running onto the course at Tattenham Corner. She was unfortunately killed in the collision.
Those near the head of the market have a terrific recent record in the Investec Derby. Five of the last 12 favourites have won and all of the last 12 winners have been among the first three in the betting on the day. None of the previous dozen winners had run at Epsom before so that form line involving Cracksman and Dante winner Permian (who still has to be supplemented for the Derby at the time of writing) may not be wholly reliable. Cracksman, himself, winner of the Derby Trial at Epsom last month, was not an original Derby entry and Permian has already run four times in 2017 – none of the last 12 winners had run more than twice as a three-year-old. Most recent winners had run in the previous five weeks and all but one had won a Group race at some stage of their career.
Aidan O’Brien has won three of the last five renewals of the Investec Derby and five times in total. The master of Ballydoyle has a very strong entry this year, despite the likely absence of Churchill. Venice Beach beat stable companions Wings Of Eagles and The Anvil, and Tamleek, in the Chester Vase but only one of the last 12 winners had run over 1m4f previously and he’s already run three times this year.
Cliffs Of Moher looks a better bet as he’ll have learned plenty from his win in the Dee Stakes at Chester but the Derby is a significant step up in class and stablemate DOUGLAS MACARTHUR is more than five times his current odds (25/1 with Betbright). The Galileo colt is making up into a smart three-year-old and, having finished second to Rekindling at Leopardstown on his reappearance, beat the better-fancied Yucatan and Capri in the Derby Trial at the same track.
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We fancied Eminent in the 2000 Guineas but little went right for Martyn Meade’s stable star on the day. Trapped wide, he saw too much daylight and was beaten inside the final quarter-mile. His trainer thinks he’ll stay the Derby distance but his breeding suggests otherwise. Best Solution beat Glencadam Glory in the Lingfield Derby Trial but doesn’t have the profile of a classic winner.
Investec Derby Current Best Odds
Cliffs Of Moher and Cracksman (9/2), Eminent (7/1), Best Solution (12/1), Permian (14/1), Venice Beach and Yucatan (16/1), Dubai Thunder (20/1), Douglas Macarthur, Waldgeist, Wings Of Eagles, Rekindling and Capri (25/1), Benbati and Best Of Days (33/1), Crowned Eagle and Thunder Snow (40/1), Glencadam Glory, The Anvil and Tamleek (50/1), Salouen and Finn McCool (66/1), Firece Impact (100/1), Pealer (200/1), Diore Lia (1000/1)
