Italy v Spain Predictions & Betting Odds – 6th October 2016

Can Spaniards edge top clash in Italy?

Eder (Italy)
Eder (Italy) © GEPA pictures

Italy v Spain Betting Preview – World Cup 2018 qualifying 6th October

A real heavyweight duel on the cards here. These two are in a class of their own in their World Cup 2018 qualifying group and so they should be untroubled by any of the other competitors. However, that leaves a straight shot between these two to scrap for the automatic qualification spot from the group. Italy can gain a strong upper hand here by taking an early lead in the group, however, if Spain were to win on the road then that would confirm them as group favourites, with their only other tough game to come then being a home fixture against the Italians later on in the campaign. So a big early top spot decider in the group. It should get interesting.

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Italy v Spain Betting Tips

So Italy really have held their own well against Spain in recent meetings between the two. They have posted a W1 D2 L1 record (90 minutes) against the Spaniards and their most recent coming together of course was at Euro 2016. Then under the management of Antonio Conte, the Azzurri produced a tactical masterclass to shut down the threat of Spain and bank a 2-0 win. Italy have only lost two of their last eight games against Spain across competitive and friendly matches, so they may be value to take back in this one. They do have a new manager with new ideas in place, and they went out and beat Israel 3-1 in their qualification opener. You really aren’t, at any stage, going to expect Italy to have more goal in them than Spain during qualification of the World Cup 2018, so that is why it is important for the Italians to win this home game.

This game going under 2.5 goals is probably the way to go and that will fetch you a quote of 4/9, just to highlight how much that is expected to happen. Only two of the last eleven between these two have gone over the goal line. You can have a crack at Both Teams Not To Score for a price of 4/6 which is better value. Only one in the last five meetings have both teams gotten on the scoresheet in a meeting. So goals have been at a premium between these two recently and up in the anytime goalscorer market you have a price of 12/5 on Graziano Pelle and 11/4 on Eder as options for the Italians. Heading up the market though is Spain’s Diego Costa and Alvaro Morata who are the 2/1 marks heading into the game. Italy’s two games this season have both ended by a 3-1 scoreline, following a friendly defeat against France by that scoreline in September.

Spain hammered Liechtenstein 8-0 in their opening qualification match and that sent a message to Italy they they are not going to get beaten on goal difference in this group. Both Costa and Morata were on the scoresheet twice in that game. Obviously there are going to be much tougher games ahead of the Spaniards in qualifying but they needed that for a  boost after their summer failure at Euro 2016 and that win over Liechtenstein followed a 2-0 win in Belgium in a friendly. So they are looking good and Spain are a quote of 11/4 to win to nil in this one. They have struggled against Italy recently though and have really struggled for anything on actual visits to Italy. So they are a little vulnerable for this one,but can they land what would be a hammer blow of a rare win on the road against Italy?

Italy v Spain Betting Odds

Spain 8/5, Draw 19/10, Italy 2/1

Italy v Spain Predictions

Tough game to call, because Italy had the upper hand of the two in the summer. They have been a little more susceptible at the back since the loss of Conte through and the Spaniards have the craft to open them up of course. Bit Spain have found the Azzurri to be a pain in the neck recently, so it may be worth looking for the drawn outcome in this one, or pushing the boat out to back Spain to win by a one goal margin. It is going to be tight.

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