Last season in the Premier League 53% of games finished over 2.5 goals. This season, while of course it is still in its infancy (we are looking at just two games having been played by each club), 45% of games have gone over the mark. This is a season of Premier League betting where shooting for value in going over the goal line could pay off because there are some things which could make this is a great season for goals in the top flight.
One factor of course is that the big clubs, Manchester City and Manchester United are likely to be back in the title hunt and that should mean more goals put on the Board. Manchester City will be benefiting from the tactical nous of new boss Pep Guardiola who knows how to get goals out of a side. We have seen that already with Sergio Aguero kicking off in great style this season. Liverpool look as if they are going to deliver and concede plenty of goals all season, while the arrival of Zlatan Ibrahimovic to the Premier League is likely to boost overall numbers as well.
So from a betting perspective we are expecting a higher output of goals to come, something perhaps which will surpass last season’s percentage. Remember, the percentage of games going over 2.5 goals and the number of goals scored across the board in a Premier League season really have nothing to do with each other too much. For example in the 2013/14 season there were more goals scored than last term, but fewer games went over 2.5 goals. This season were are expecting more goals and more games going above the mark.
2015/16 – 53% – 1026 goals
2014/15 – 48% – 975 goals
2013/14 – 52% – 1052 goals
Back to this season then and it appears that the big clubs have stepped up to the mark again which will make a big difference in output. The other thing that should lead to more goals being scored this season in the Premier League is the new directives that referees are working under. We have already seen this come into play this season, notably at the Stoke v Manchester City game on the weekend. Both sides were awarded a penalty in the game because of defenders holding attackers during a set piece inside the penalty area.
All that tugging and pulling and holding that goes on normally, is set to be punished heavily this season. So we could see a lot more penalty kicks being dished out in the top flight this season until players curtail their instincts to grab one another. This could ultimately lead defences to be a little more cautious in defending corners and free kicks in their own box too, which will work in favour of the attackers. This could be a big change for the season in the amount of goals that are going to be recorded in the English top flight.
The other big change to the Premier League refereeing this season is players being cautioned for diving. This again could lead to more goals through there being more players sent off this season as well. These are little things to take into consideration. It’s not likely to be as big of a factor as the cautions for holding, but it is something which could play its part.
When you are looking at the teams to follow for games going over 2.5 goals comfortably, you are naturally going to better off follow particular ones. Let’s look at a table from last season of teams who had a high percentage of games going over the goal line.
Manchester City 66%
Chelsea 63%
West Ham 63%
Everton 58%
Bournemouth 58%
Tottenham 55%
You will notice of course that you aren’t just looking at the big clubs for games over 2.5 goals. The defensive weaknesses of Chelsea, Everton, Bournemouth and West Ham all played a massive part in them producing high scoring games. It is likely that this season you will see Manchester United creeping up in the higher percentage of things, so too Liverpool. So always bear in mind those teams with poor defences for the high scoring games.
Arsenal surprisingly only managed a 50/50 split on games going over/under the goal line last season. West Brom delivered the lowest percentage of games going over the mark, just 37% of the Baggies top flight matches last season going above 2.5 goals. Only they, Aston Villa, Watford and Manchester United saw less than 50% of their games go over 2.5 goals.
Just two games into the new season and no Premier League side has managed to keep two clean sheets. So expect the goals to be flowing a little more freely from clubs this season. So look for the value in the over 2.5 goals market this season in the top flight for your match betting. Who is likely to produce the highest amount of goals on an individual level? Sergio Aguero is now running at 5/2 in the Premier League Top Goalscorer market, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic at 4/1. Chelsea’s Diego Costa is a 10/1 punt, with Harry Kane at 12/1 and then everyone else out at 25/1 or bigger.
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