Newcastle v Chelsea Betting Preview
Did the win away at Aston Villa in midweek turn the tide for the flailing Magpies? Alan Pardew was quick to bring in a bunch of new players in January, adding a French legion to his assembled troops. That should have offered a bit of rejuvenation for them and they could take that confidence and turn in into a great home win against Chelsea. The Blues have been struggling lately, looking as if they have ran out of steam and motivation. Their confidence can’t be that high at the moment and could be on the ropes again as they head up north.
Newcastle v Chelsea Betting Odds at online bookmaker Paddy Power
Chelsea 10/11, Draw 5/2, Newcastle 3/1
Newcastle v Chelsea Recommended Bet:
Cannot ignore the value in Newcastle here at home. Yes, they have been poor this season, and yes they have lost half of their last ten Premier League matches, but some confidence will have been restored from a good display away at Villa in midweek. That was a massive game for the Magpies to win, opening up a bit of cushion between themselves and Villa, pulling away from the drop zone. The defence of Newcastle still looks pretty ropey and it could be easily punished, but you have to look at the bigger picture. The new signings that Pardew has made could well have injected new life and new confidence into the side. It was Papiss Cisse and Yohan Cabaye (just returning from injury) who scored the important goals against Villa and they need someone to step up consistently in front of goal.
Newcastle have struggled for goals this season, having scored at a rate of just 1.25 per game across the board. Moussa Sissoko in midfield could be a big signing in getting their season going, and with the extra depth they now have from Mathieu Debuchy, Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa, Massadio Haidara and Yoan Gouffran coming in, they could shape up. So the win against Villa could have been the start of their season. However, their form against Chelsea isn’t great, having won just one of their last eleven against the Blues (losing six). The Magpies have also lost five of their last seven on home soil as well so that is some more poor form they have to overturn. They claimed their first away win of the season in midweek, can they take that into a positive home performance? Newcastle lost 2-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, but they have scored in each of their last six home matches now. Can they inflict more misery on the Blues?
Chelsea, for the second time in three Premier League games, threw away a two goal lead in a game. Leading 2-0 away at Reading with just three minutes left on the clock, Chelsea crumbled and let the home side grab an unlikely 2-2 draw. The positives for Chelsea is that they were dominant for pretty much all the match, but they struggled to convert. That was after a similar story at home against Southampton where they were pegged back to a 2-2 draw. The only positive sandwiched in between that was a 2-1 home win over Arsenal. Rafa Benitez has now picked up fewer points in his first 12 matches in charge than Roberto di Matteo did in his first dozen games of the new season. Still, Chelsea are scoring well and they could well breech the none too-convincing back line of the Magpies. But the blow in confidence at the Madejski in the week will now make this another very tricky game for them.
Chelsea have scored in each of their last ten away matches now, at an average rate of 1.9 goals per game. They have conceded at a rate of just over a goal per game on the road this season. The Blues have won three and lost none of their last five Premier League visits to St James Park, and defensively they have been very sound up there, letting in just one goal in that run. Sixteen times this season Chelsea have scored the opening goal of a game this season, more than any other side in the top flight this term. Juan Mata has been massively influential having been involved in 18 goals in his 19 EPL starts this season, while the evergreen Frank Lampard has scored nine goals in 11 Premier League starts this season. Then there is Demba Ba, returning to face the Magpies. Although Benitez has oddly been favouring Torres over him, will he have the impact back at St James Park? Chelsea are unbeaten in their last nine away games, but will their current good form against Newcastle continue, or will the lack of confidence get the better of them?
There is just great value in backing the home side to take advantage of Chelsea’s lack of conviction at the moment for a price of 3/1 at online bookmaker Paddy Power.
Newcastle LLLDLW, Chelsea LWDWDD
The Blues are unbeaten in nine away games now
Chelsea have thrown away a two goal lead twice in their last three EPL matches
Newcastle have won just one of the last eleven EPL matches against Chelsea
Chelsea have scored first on sixteen occasions this season
Newcastle have lost five of their last seven at home
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