Well, Theresa May may very well get her way and still remain as PM, but with the recent election result, which the Tories were expected to win by a landslide, not exactly going her way as it ended in a hung parliament, May’s days may ultimately be numbered. There have already been stern calls from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for her to step down. But there has been pressure on her from her own party as well, with MP’s blaming the head honcho for the poor results in the snap election, which saw Labour gain a lot of ground.
So now it is unlikely that she will be there in the long term and certainly is unlikely to lead the Tories into another election, so this is a good time to look at the next conservative leader betting odds that are around at the moment. Really you can consider the race to replace her up and running at the moment and when you throw in the complications of the Brexit negotiations and where the main candidates to replace her are right now, this is likely to turn out as being a pretty volatile market down the line.
Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds
Boris Johnson 6/4, David Davis 4/1, Ruth Davidson 5/1, Amber Rudd 6/1, Philip Hammond 14/1, 25/1 bar
The top five in the Next Conservative Leader betting odds at Ladbrokes are all currently under 20/1 so that’s the place to look at right now. It is Boris Johnson who is leading the market, but if history in political betting tells us anything, then it is to avoid him. No early favourite has ever won a Tory leadership race, not since political betting started. The former Mayor of London was actually the early favourite in the race to replace David Cameron and as much as he was hyped up and backed, he didn’t even throw his name in the hat. Johnson’s not really perceived within the party as a political heavyweight who can handle the top job, but he has at least broader appeal than any of the other main runners.
But Johnson is a risk and worth avoiding at the moment as short at 6/4 with Ladbrokes. Brexit Secretary David Davis is technically the one in the best position to jump into the hot seat should May go sooner rather than later. He ticks all the boxes really to succeed May, come what may. The party will recognise that he actually voted in favour of Brexit, and he has been right there fighting for this all along and carries a lot of weight which could pull the party back together, particularly if the exit is a little softer than initially hoped for. He is the go-to man more likely than not if May goes and makes great value. Perhaps the only downside is his age as he’s 68 and would like May to go sooner rather than later to get the job.
Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson played a big part in helping to at least maintain the Conservatives’ numbers in Parliament. She gained 12 seats in the recent election and like Davis, is an advocate of Brexit. Of all the front runners she is the biggest unity candidate on the board and has the power to pull the party together in a soft Brexit. But as the majority of her own party want a ruthless, hard Brexit then Davidson is on the wrong side of that perhaps. Whereas Davis needs to get in there quickly, Davidson can actually bide her time and if the dust of Brexit settles and then May goes, Davidson will look a much stronger candidate in Next Conservative Leader betting. Not a bad long term punt if May sticks around and Davidson is 5/1 at Ladbrokes to take the reins.
Home Secretary Amber Rudd looks a mid-market floater and is hard to read. She looks competent in her job but she would have taken the same path to Number 10 as May and that could be a turn-off. She probably doesn’t have the strong base within the party to really put her to the front, but she is floating around there and surprisingly as short as she is in the market. Then you can take a look at the current Chancellor Philip Hammond who is in the position of power and it is a position which of course, commands trust and a strong political presence. He would be the safe bet for the party to go to and there is a precedence here with the likes of Gordon Brown and John Major both having climbed up the ladder from Chancellor to PM. It’s not unusual, but Hammond is against Brexit and his stance and views may alienate the side of the party that wants this Brexit ordeal done and dusted quickly. But that having been said, he is right in the middle of the entire debate and could have the safe hands at a big price.
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