Nobel prize for literature 2016 betting odds & predictions

Wide open field again headed by Murakami

Novelty Betting & Other Events Betting

The Nobel Prize for Literature is one of conjecture because you get a lot of names cropping up year after year for the award. So that leads critics to thinking that there is a bit of myopic outlook at the Prize and it comes into focus this week when the award will be handed out. Last year it was Belarusian writer Svetlana Alexievich who was given it for “for her polyphonic writings, a monument to suffering and courage in our time”.

So after the Swedish Academy had sent out all of this request for nominations, it is that time again to get everything narrow down to one winner who will walk off with not only the honour of winning the much-lauded Prize, but landing a nice prize purse as well. This year the award will be handed out a week later than usual and will be awarded on October 13th. One thing in this is that no author can get the award without having been nominated at least twice. So this is why you will see a lot of familiar names coming back and back again.

Interestingly, unlike other awards, you don’t get a shortlist to narrow down your Nobel Peace Prize for Literature, as nomination lists of a year are kept secret for 50 years. So it is pretty much a shot in the dark, but that of course doesn’t stop much speculation going around, as it does every year. So you can still sort of narrow things in, even if you don’t know who exactly has been nominated for the award.

This year it is Japan’s Haruki Murakami who is the front runner again this year as he was last. But punters may be a little tired of throwing cash at home because he keeps getting overlooked. It has been spectacled that he has been up for this award a lot, but of course, no-one knows for certain because of lists being kept secret. It’s worth noting that this isn’t like the Man Booker Prize for the best book of the year or anything, this is recognition of work as an author, their full body of work. Murakami has produced fantastic works such as “Kafka on the Shore) and “1Q84” and has been called one of the world’s greatest living novelist.

Will he land Nobel Prize recognition though? Potentially running against him in is Syrian poet Adunis, Kenyan novelist Ngugi wa Thiong’o and U.S. authors Don DeLillo, Philip Roth and Joyce Carol Oates.

You are going to be looking at a varied and ranged list in this one because not even bookmakers know of course who is up for nomination, which makes things very difficult. There have been some hints to wards playwright Jon Fosse getting close this year as it has been it over a decade since a playwright won the prize (Harold Pinter in 2005). You can search around at bookmakers and find names such as British writer Salman Rushdie, Ismail Kadare of Albania, Israeli author David Grossman, France’s Milan Kundera along with Norwegian playwright Jon Fosse in the running.

Nobel Prize for Literature Odds

Haruki Murakami 5/1, Adunis 6/1, Philip Roth 7/1, Ngugi Wa Thiong’o 10/1, Ismail Kadare 16/1, Javier Marias 16/1, Antonio Lobo Antunes 20/1, John Banville 20/1, Jon Fosse 20/1, Joyce Carol Oates 20/1, Laszlo Krasznahorkai 20/1, Amos Oz 25/1, Peter Handke 25/1, Peter Nadas 25/1, 33/1 bar

Nobel Prize for Literature Stats

France has produced the most Literature Laureates in the history of the award, having won it 15 times. Then comes the United States and the United Kingdom with 10 wins each. You then have Germany and Sweden with 8 each, then Italy and Spain with 6 each. So you can see that it has largely been dominated by Western Europe to say the least. It has gotten a little more diverse in the last few years though, with wins from Peru, Canada, China and last year’s Belarus effort from Svetlana Alexievich. The UK’s last winner was Doris Lessing in 2007.

You also need to look at the stats for language as well. Bodies of work in English have won the most frequently with 30 victories, follow by French with 15, German 13/1, Spanish 11 and Swedish 7.

Nobel Prize for Literature Predictions

So it is a tough one to call and if the Nobel Prize of Literature is going to go somewhere experimental then it would be towards Fosse. If he was to land it then he would be just the fourth Norwegian ever to have won the Prize for Literature. So you do have that appeal on the prize going there to shake things up a little bit and while Murakami has been heavily touted as being a winner, it is a little surprising that he hasn’t actually won it yet. So it will come down to whether your perceive that as a negative or not. He is extremely popular, he checks a lot of the boxes that the criteria for the award looks for and maybe it is his “time” to win.

But we would look a little further afield. Ismail Kadare is a great shout at a decent price. Some could see him as a safe way to go and he has been touted around a potential winner before. The Albanian novelist is knocking on in years to (80) and so would be running out of time to be recognised for his body of work.

Again as longer shots in the dark not knowing who is really in the frame, you could draw in Maryse Condé and Nawal el Saadawi. When Alexievich won last year, some thought that was a reaction to a lack of diversity in the award, so you could look at the train of thought that the committee may want to reinforce that and hand it to another woman. Nawal el Saadawi could come in strongly there or Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie who is producing a strong body of work, but perhaps is too young to be judged as a whole for her career output.

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