The market vibes proved correct as ante-post favourite Capri was withdrawn at the final declaration stage for Saturday’s Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster.
Aidan O’Brien may be the champion trainer but he doesn’t always do himself any favours with the betting public with his comments regarding Capri being, at best, ambiguous prior to the colt’s withdrawal. Plenty of punters will have lost their money though, to be fair, they should know by now that nothing is ever set in stone as regards future plans for Ballydoyle’s legion of potential classic contenders and O’Brien was always going to run Beresford Stakes second Yucatan at Doncaster.
Racing Post Trophy History and Trends
The Racing Post Trophy was first run in 1961 as the Timeform Gold Cup and has subsequently been known as the Observer Gold Cup (1965-75) and the Futurity Stakes (1976-88, when sponsored by William Hill). It adopted its present name in 1989 when the Racing Post took over sponsorship.
The final Group 1 race of the year in the UK, it is run over a mile and for two-year-olds and regarded as an important indicator for the following year’s top middle-distance races, including the Epsom Derby.
Several have won at Doncaster and gone on to glory at Epsom. Kingston Hill won the race in 2013 and won the St Leger the following year so this is a race from which you can gather plenty of pointers. However, if you’re looking for next year’s Qipco 2,000 Guineas winner, the Dewhurst at Newmarket or the National Stakes at the Curragh are better guides.
Despite the 33/1 success of Marcel last year, the market is usually a good guide to the Racing Post Trophy as no winner in the preceding six years had started at bigger odds than 7/2.
Most previous winners had already won over at least 7f and most had won over a mile. That doesn’t really help this year, however, as only the maiden The Anvil falls outside those margins. The Anvil is one of three O’Brien runners still taking part but all the money this week has been for Yucatan. Two of the previous nine winners had run in the Beresford Stakes previously so you can understand why the Curragh second is a short price (Evens with most bookmakers) – his yard have already won the race seven times. Finn McCool is the third O’Brien runner but he was beaten a long way behind fellow Irish raider Brutal on his debut and looks held by Rivet on collateral form.
RIVET has to be the value at his general 11/2 quote, regardless of how Yucatan fares. That looks an each-way bet to nothing as he looked ready for a step up in distance when fifth over 7f in the Dewhurst. He’d won the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster previously and beaten Contrapposto earlier at York. Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a fantastic record in the Racing Post Trophy having ridden the last three winners.
Raheen House could be overpriced at 18/1 with William Hill given the York winner has a very nice middle-distance pedigree and is from a family of late developers and the following free bet offer is available when you sign up at William Hill via a link here and use the promotional code F20.
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Racing Post Trophy Current Best Odds
Yucatan (Evs), Rivet (11/2), Salouen and Sir Dancealot (10/1), Contrapposto (14/1), The Anvil (16/1), Raheen House (18/1), Finn McCool (25/1), Brutal and Bay Of Poets (33/1)
