Andy Murray missed out on his shot at the French Open Final in falling to former champions Stan Wawrinka over an epic five set battle with the Swiss star. So that moves Wawrinka back to the final of the French Open for the second time in his career after making that successful run to the 2015 title when he produced that epic display in the showcase match against Novak Djokovic.
Waiting for Wawrinka in the final will be nine-time champion Rafael Nadal and the Spaniard is trading as 1/6 outright favourite at Bet365. Nadal faced the challenge of the upcoming talent that is Dominic Thiem in his semi final. Thiem had already recorded recent win over Nadal on clay this season by taking him out of the quarter finals in Rome. That has been Nadal’s only loss on clay this season, and the Spaniard, including this semi final win, has now won the other three meetings with the young Austrian this season as he earned some revenge.
So now will Nadal create some history by winning his tenth French Open title? Nadal has never lost a French Open final, with a perfect 9-0 record and he has looked phenomenal on his run to the final this year. He has not dropped a set on the road to the final and he has lost just 29 games, which is only two away from the Open Era record set by Bjorn Borg for fewest games dropped into a Grand Slam Final. No man or woman has won 10 titles at a single Grand Slam event during the Open Era.
Nadal won his tenth title at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters this season and also his tenth at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell as well. He also managed to pick up his fifth Mutua Madrid Open on the clay this season as well. So he has been in phenomenal form this season and he needed just around 30 minutes to finish off Thiem in the third set of their semi final showdown. Nadal has only been out for around 10 hours in total in the tournament, having blitzed everyone in his path. Wawrinka hadn’t lost a set until he faced Murray in the semi final and has spent more than 15 hours out on the court in getting the final.
The two players have met 18 times before and Nadal dominates the head to head with a 15-3 record. On clay, Nadal is 5-1 to the good. Wawrinka has had a very solid tournament so far and he will move up to world number three at the expense of Novak Djokovic moving to fourth. If he wins the title on the weekend then he will jump up to a career-high number two. Wawrinka did have that extra exertion in his semi final, but he did race through the final set 6-1 against Murray.
The last time Nadal and Wawrinka faced off was at the 2016 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Monte Carlo event which Nadal won easily in straight sets on clay. He has won the last two in a row against Wawrinka, but the last six in the head to head have all been split evenly. In the set betting at bet365 there is a Rafael Nadal 3-0 option at 10/11, with a Nadal 3-1 victory trading at 11/4. You are looking at a much bigger 6/1 price on Nadal winning in five sets.
Prediction
It’s hard not to side with Nadal in this one. He has that perfect record in French Open Finals and has a commanding head to head record against Wawrinka. Wawrinka has to be good for a set in the match, especially if he does what he did against Djokovic in 2015, but everything comes down on the side of Nadal and a 3-1 set victory for the Spaniard looks favourable.
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