It is the final event of the ATP Tour season as the World Tour Finals starts this weekend in London. The new world number one Andy Murray is heading to the Finals as outright favourite to go and claim the title. That’s a big mark for Murray because Novak Djokovic is there, but it is clear that the Scotsman is the man in form and even though Murray has gotten himself a tougher draw than the Serbian has, Murray is 5/4 to make a sweep of the title. Basically he is the one to beat going into the ATP World Tour Finals.
The O2 Arena is again the host for the finals and Murray will be looking for his first title at the event. The Finals has largely been dominated by Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic for the last decade or so. In the last thirteen editions of the tournament Federer has won it six times and Djokovic five times. Since it moved to the rebranding of the ATP World Tour Finals in 2009, Djokovic has won four of the seven editions, actually winning each of the last four stagings of the event. So the Serbian is the one with the form here and he is a 6/4 second favourite at Paddy Power and will still have appeal to come through here in opposition to the 5/4 quote on Murray.
Since Djokovic got his hands on the career Grand Slam with his win at the French Open in the summer his form has tanked, helping to give rise to Murray’s number one status. While they are the top two in the draw, is it worth looking behind them at any of the six other players there? Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic are the strongest backed underdogs to come through and it’s all going to be about the draw. Murray is going up against Kei Nishikori, Cilic and Wawrinka, which is the toughest draw he could have gotten as he faces the third, fifth and seventh seeds.
Looking at the betting as well on the outright market, Wawrinka, Nishikori and Cilic are the third, fourth and fifth favourites behind Murray and Djokovic. So a rough draw for Murray to get through, and in the opposing group, Djokovic has gotten it easy. In fact the Serbian has won all of his previous 23 matches combined against the players he will face in the group, who are Dominic Thiem, Gael Monfils and Milos Raonic. So there is more than a reasonable chance of Djokovic coming back to a bit of form. He probably will want to unleash some sort of backlash to having lost his number one status.
With no Rafael Nadal, with no Roger Federer the face of the ATP World Tour Finals is changing rapidly. But still, it is going to be hard to look past Murray or Djokovic here. In the To Reach Final market, you have a Djokovic/Murray finals at a price of even money with Paddy Power to happen with online betting site Paddy Power. Wawrinka is the one most likely to break the dominance there and sneak into the final to oppose either Murray or Djokovic there. Of course, if either Murray or Djokovic fails to win their respective group, there could be a heavyweight semi final showdown on the cards.
ATP World Tour Finals 2016 Betting Winner Odds
Andy Murray 5/4, Novak Djokovic 6/4, Stan Wawrinka 10/1, Marin Cilic 16/1, Kei Nishikori 20/1, Milos Raonic 20/1, Gael Monfils 33/1, Dominic Thiem 33/1
ATP World Tour Finals 2016 Betting Promotion
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ATP World Tour Finals 2016 Betting Draw
So the eight qualified players will be split into two round robin groups of four. In the John McEnroe Group you have Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic. In the Ivan Lendl Group there is Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem. It is a straight round robin with the top two moving through to the semi finals. The winner of each group will play the second placed player from the opposite group in the final four.
It is worth looking at the head to head here for the favourites. Murray has a career head to head lead over everyone in the tournament apart from Novak Djokovic, to whom he trails 10-24. However, Murray has lost his last games against Nishikori and Cilic and in beating Wawrinka at the French Open this reason, that snapped a three match losing streak that he was on against the Swiss player. His group starts action the day after the other group, tightening the schedule meaning that he would have to win five matches in seven drays.
So the physical demand is there. Djokovic has a 23-0 head to head record in total against all the all other players in his group. Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils are competing for the first time in the ATP World Tour Finals and on his only other appearance in the tournament back in 2014, Raonic lost his two matches.
The Tournament is played indoors and the speed of surfaces can chop and change. Paris played much quicker this year for example than it did last year and that helps the big serving players in draws. This year’s surface at the O2 has been pretty much matched to the Paris surface. More defensive players like Djokovic and Murray who are happy to counterpunch, have some their effectiveness taken away on courts that are running a bit faster, but the fact that Djokovic has dominated this tournament for the last four years, he is still going to be a major threat. The best in the world should be able to adjust to what they are playing on.
ATP World Tour Finals 2016 Betting Prediction
There have been a couple of upsets in the ATP World Tour Finals in recent years, as David Nalbandian came from nowhere to claim the 2005 title while veteran Nikolay Davydenko landed the 20009 edition. But you will have a hard time justifying looking at anyone other than Murray or Djokovic in this one. None of Djokovic’s opponents in the group stage are carrying any kind of form to suggest that they are going to pull off an upset and get past him.
It is big ask of Cilic and Wawrinka to come through as well. Cilic is just one of two players to have beaten both Murray and Djokovic this season, but he trails Wawrinka 2-10 in the head to head there. But because of Wawrinka slipping to some strange defeats since the summer, it may be worth backing Cilic to follow Murray through from the group and Cilic is a price of 5/6 with Paddy Power to reach the semi finals.
But for a winner it is a coin toss between Murray and Djokovic. There are two factors here that tips things towards Djokovic. He is going to be hungry at getting a shot back at reclaiming the number one spot and should be fired up. He has an easier group than Murray does and Djokovic has been totally dominant at the ATP World Tour Finals in the last four seasons and has a commanding head to head lead against Murray. It’s a tough one to oppose him at the price of second favourite. He looks value to make it five titles in five seasons.