Bookmakers are setting up the 76th US Masters as a straight fight between Tiger Woods and young pretender Rory McIlroy. But can you honestly describe their current best odds of 6/1 (BetVictor and Stan James) and 71/10 (Blue Square and 888sport) respectively as value?
Tiger, for example, has only won once at Augusta since 2002 and, regardless of a recent success at Bay Hill, still isn’t the Tiger of old, while McIlroy has never finished in the top 10 in three previous visits to the Augusta National. You could, of course, argue that the young Irishman should have won last year but for a horror show over the final nine holes of the final round. Would that collapse would play on the mind if he found himself in the same position again? Who knows!
Golfing coaches don’t often grab the headlines but Sean Foley has bucked that trend this year. He’s apparently been responsible for Tiger‘s rehabilitation on the course and Hunter Mahan and Justin Rose have also done him proud. Mahan, a general 33/1 for the Masters, is finally starting to fulfill his potential on the US PGA Tour having already won the Accenture Match Play and last week’s Houston Open this year. Always a strong putter, he’s worked hard on his short game over the last two seasons and is beginning to look the real deal. Rose has been another slow-burner but he, as well, has blossomed under the tutelage of Foley recently. Like Mahan, I picked out Rose as a likely contender in last week’s brief preview but most bookmakers will still lay you 30/1 against him winning his first Major at Augusta, which has to be worth a bet giving he’s already shown a liking for the course and was winning for the fourth time in two years on the US PGA Tour when successful in the Cadillac Championship in Miami last month.
Brandt Snedeker is another who could go well at big odds. A winner earlier this year in California, the 32-year-old from Tennessee has three top 10 finishes to his name already in 2012 and has made the cut in all eight tournaments he’s contested. He tied for third in the Masters in 2008 and was 15th last year so has an Augusta pedigree and comes into the event with plenty of confidence. Snedeker makes massive each-way appeal at the general 80/1 as the likes of Boylesports, bodog, Paddy Power and Stan James are offering place terms of a quarter of the odds for the first six. Paddy Power, incidentally, will refund all losing outright singles if Tiger wins the Masters this year.
Snedeker is bigger in the betting than Martin Kaymer (75/1 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Skybet) who has an appalling record at Augusta and Webb Simpson (70/1 with BetVictor). Simpson is currently in the world’s top 10 but this will be his first Masters and no rookie has won the season’s first major since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Keegan Bradley (37/1 on Betfair) is also experiencing the challenges of the Georgia course for the first time but I wouldn’t put anyone off backing three-times Masters winner Phil Mickelson. The general 12/1 may look fairly short but the left-hander arrives in good nick and is guaranteed to hold his nerve if in contention on the last day while those around him panic. Mahan, Rose and Snedeker are my three against the field, however.
