WHAT DO YOU KNOW (About Football Betting) – part 7.
Odds-on favourites playing away
I recently looked at odds-on favourites playing at home.
Now is the time to see how the odds-on jolly fares when playing away.
In general playing away seems to attract all sorts of problems, even for the best teams.
Based purely on the odds offered the outcomes do appear to let the punter down. Big time.
Premiership.
The odds range of 1.01 to 1.25 has not as yet been offered on any games. 1.26 to 1.50 has an excellent return of 75% winners but from only 4 games.
The three ranges from 1.51 to 2.25 have all been disappointing. With returns of 50.0 %, 12.5% and 25.0% respectively. In all there were only 9 winners from 30 games.
The 1.76 to 2.00 and 2.01 to 2.25 are very disappointing with an overall success of only 4 winners from 20 games.
The overall picture isn’t very pretty. Only 21.9% of games have so far ended with an away win. Way below average.
Only Portugese La Liga 20.8% and Braziliero 21.8% have lower returns.
Spanish Primera.
Here the odds-on shots fare very well indeed. The four odds-ranges falling either above or within range
1.01 to 1.25 3 out of 3 for 100%
1.26 to 1.50 7 out of 9 for 77.78%
1.51 to 1.75 2 out of 2 for 100%
1.76 to 2.00 1 out of 2 for 50%.
Cold figures don’t say a lot but 13 winners from 16 games is not to be sniffed at. in fact the first seven ranges fare extremely well. It’s only when prices rise above 2.75 that the away sides are really up against it. The pointers here are very obvious.
Italy Serie "A".
So far this season there have only been 11 away teams at odds-on. Only 4 have been successful. My advice is Leave Alone.
German Bundesliga.
Here again there is a dirth of odds-on away sides. However those that do carry the heavy money have a reasonable return.
Between 1.51 and 2.00 there were 5 winners from 7 games, almost 72% winners.
France Division 1
Very few odds-on aways sides here. Just not enough data to use.
Portugal La Liga
18 games here between 1.01 and 2.00 10 winners altogether. Best results are from 1.01 to 1.50 100% winners.
Dutch Eredivision.
18 out of 35 winning odds-on here. The best being 1.25 to 1.50 (7 from 11) and 1.76 to 2.0 (6 from 12).
Irish Premier.
Here two odds-ranges stand out from the odds-on group. 1.51 to 1.75 and 1.76 to 2.00 There both OVER-PERFORMED at 66.67 and 53.33 respectively.
It’s also worth noting that 2.01 to 2,25 had a good season with a 60.0% return.
Braziliero.
Disasterous. 7 winning odds-on aways teams from 23 matches. 1.01 to 1.25 was unbelievable only six successes from 21 matches. Not what is expected from the supposedly best league in South America.
America MLS.
Little more than a handful of games qualify. The results of 4 winners from 7. 1.76 to 2.0 netted 2 out of 2.
Best forget the rest.
For reference purposes the appropriate tableds for comparison are available in WHAT DO YOU KNOW Pt 6.
Next time I will look at ODDS/PRICES and try to make some sense out of them.
A HAPPY CHRISTMAS and VERY PROSPEROUS 2011 to Everyone.
