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Value-Strategy + Stakes acc. to Kelly

Sports Betting Strategy of Andy
Value-Strategy + Stakes acc. to Kelly - Sports Betting Strategy of Andy
Here comes my value-strategy:

Use a good source which shows you the probabilities (percentage-distribution) of results on the basis of good statistics.

It's not easy to find such a good source - an example would be:
The alternatives are and

Then you take the current odds of your favourite bookie (that's the one where you have got the most money in the betting account ;-))

Then you have to compare the statistical percentages with the current odds. Decimal odds can be simply converted into percentages by dividing 1 by the odds (e.g. 1 / 1.5 = 0.666 = 67%)

Arsenal Chelsea 27 39 34
Odds on Chelsea at e.g. Bet365 are 2.40
1 / 2.40 = 0.416 --> meaning 42%
Gives you a difference of 42% - 34% = 8%

Then you can stake those 8% according to the Kelly-strategy. Stake according to Kelly amounts to: budget (e.g. £500) multiplied by 1/10th of the valuation (here 8% thus 0.08) divided by the decimal odds minus 1 (here 2.40 - 1 = 1.40)

Thus, at our match 40 divided by 1.40 = a £28.57 stake

The Kelly-strategy has the advantage that the stake is calculated on the basis of probabilities and your currently available budget.

Best wishes

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