Here comes my
value-strategy:
Use a
good source which shows you the
probabilities (percentage-distribution)
of results on the basis of
good statistics.
It's not easy to find such a good source - an example would be:
http://invarius.ivnet.ru/soccer/champ/champ.htm
(from Russia and partly Russian, but still usable)
The alternatives are
statarea.com, statto.com and prosoccer.gr
Then you take the
current odds of your favourite bookie
(that's the one where you have got the most money in the
betting account ;-))
Then you have to
compare the
statistical percentages
with the
current odds.
Decimal odds can be simply converted into percentages by
dividing 1 by the odds (e.g. 1 / 1.5 = 0.666 = 67%)
Example:
Arsenal Chelsea 27 39 34
Odds on Chelsea at e.g.
Bet365 are 2.40
1 / 2.40 = 0.416 --> meaning 42%
Gives you a
difference of 42% - 34% =
8%
Then you can stake those 8%
according to the Kelly-strategy.
Stake according to Kelly amounts to:
budget (e.g. £500) multiplied by 1/10th of the
valuation (here 8% thus 0.08) divided by the
decimal odds minus 1 (here 2.40 - 1 = 1.40)
Thus, at our match 40 divided by 1.40 = a £28.57 stake
The
Kelly-strategy has the
advantage that the
stake
is calculated on the basis of
probabilities and your currently available
budget.
Best wishes
Andy
