This is a
betting strategy I tried out this autumn season with much success in
Italian football.
It could be other championship too, like Spanish or German, but I
preferred the Italian one, because I can watch its matches regulary.
The
strategy consists of looking up when the championships' strong
teams like Inter, Juventus, AC Milan, Roma have important
(and possibly decisive) matches in the CL, which are much more
important for them than their weekend matches with
lower ranked
Italian teams, because they receive a lot of money if they get
a result or even one goal more in the CL, so they will fill
their B or even C team for the previous weekend's Italian match,
to rest their
key players.
Based on this I place a
medium sized bet(in a betting exchange,
where I can lay it back when needed) on their weaker opponent's
win before or at the beginning of the match, then wait to see
how things shape. As the weaker team players know they have a
chance to get something out of the match because the absence
of the
big teams rested players, they will be more concentrated
than usual, and try to hold 0-0 and score the first goal from
counterattacks, which would bring their win's odds drastically
down, from 8-9 to 2-3, where I lay it back for caution, because
then the big team will certainly try to
get a draw at least,
and would bring in more
quality players. If I see that the weaker
team just can't score either for about 30 minutes, I lay them back
with a bit
better odds, at about 6-7.
This
strategy also works for cup-matches too, which are considered
by the
big teams as less important and they use them to see how their
B-team players
perform.
Good luck,
Ben.
