I like to play single
so I started betting with 1X2
but I noticed I get
better odds with asian handicap
. Of course risk is sometimes higher
with asian handicap betting, but usually with good analyse you can improve your percentag.
I use asian handicap because of two main reasons:
1. I risk less
because odds are always high so I need fewer correct games to be in profit
2. In my opionion another advantage for betting on asian handicap
that bookmaker sets line so you will only have to choose better line
( let's say line is -1/2
but you can search for -0.25
), not better odd ( supposing odds are always 1.90/1.90
I use a combined strategy
that involves many aspects .
Let me explain my strategy
1. First I have searched and added to my shortlist some leagues that can be
reliable and results are often predictable
and not ambiguous
My leagues are first english leagues
. I find enough games in these leagues .
Depending on my knowledge I have more leagues.
2. From these leagues I choose games where I can find informations
that are decisive for a game.
3. If I can watch games from that league ( for example English Premier League
I note on my paper coach tactics
from my point of view. For example,
Rafa Benitez from Liverpool prefers to win 2-0
than winning 6-2
This tells me he is more preoccupied by final result
than beating handicap.
Also I note on a paper or I search on internet teams formation. For example
a team with 4-4-2 formation is more likely to beat handicap
than a team playing 4-5-1 formation .
For first 3 steps is more a start of the season research . During season I
only update if something changed. My daily analyse starts from step 4
4. This step I think is most important
for me. I try to explain this step clear.
I will take an example from English Premier League
. Let's take two teams
from this year: Liverpool
( a good team ) and Birmingham
( a bad team ).
For every game these teams play, bookmakers set their lines . For Liverpool's
lines are always sharp ( AH -1 , AH -1.25 , AH -1.5
) when Liverpool
plays against poor teams . For Birmingham
, lines are in their favour because
this team is supposed to struggle and fight against relegation ( they give AH +0.5 , AH +1 , AH +1.5
Maybe you don't know but for every game played this handicap is included
in statistic! For every game played, for example Liverpool game
Liverpool plays home and asian handicap
and final result is 2-1
for Liverpool, although Liverpool won the game in handicap statistic
Liverpool lost. This statistic is my main betting base. This means that
Liverpool played worse than expected. They should have won easily that game .
So, what I do?
I start from my opinion that bookies set correct asian
. I search for good teams that LOST their handicap
consecutive ( for me at least 3 times or 4 times is enough ). I search
those teams from all today's offer and write them on paper for further
investigation. From let's say 50 games per day I end up with 8-9 games
left on my shortlist.
5. Next step
is searching for team statistic
. Here I am interested most
per game scored and received
. I eliminate games where that
have poor statistic because although these teams are set favourite by
bookies, their real play is bad.
6. I search for injuries
or any other news that can affect usual style
.If I find something bad for favourite teams I eliminate that
game from my shortlist .
7. With remaining games on my list I place my bets. I use flat betting
with 5% of my bank stake
on every bet .
To make my work easier so I found some sites that can help me
www.7m.cn - main site used for asian handicap tracking system
www.sfstats.net - used for goals per game
www.betbrain.com - used to search for best asian handicap lines
other sites - injuries , team news , previews
I use some sites for general info. First I use club's
http://www.soccerassociation.com ( or other webpages I already stored )
if I have enough time to study. If not , I use :
1 ) http://www.bethelp.com/index.asp?Cat=112&Desc=0&Col=4&Par=110
This page from www.bethelp.com contains previews of the games and many useful news.
1) http://www.betinf.com/ - transfers
this last site is my favourite one.