The Most Important Things in Betting
Sports Betting Strategy of GeorgeHI,
The following are the most important things in good betting and necessary if you want big winnings.
1. Get to know your teams
Study the teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know their home and away records, and evaluate them objectively. Pay attention to changes in the quality of a team from one season to the other as players get older and changes occur - players are transferred, managers come and go. Major improvement or decline from season to season is commonplace in professional sports.
2. Bet on motivated teams
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential, but at other times may play well above what is indicated by their overall record - especially in critical games. Determine how important a game is to a team. If the team has already reached a play-off spot, they may be more focused on the play-offs than the present game. Conversely, a team facing a must-win situation to avoid relegation may be highly motivated. A team out to avenge a defeat earlier in the season may also be very motivated.
3. Don't chase your losses
When you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't panic and make the common mistake of betting larger amounts in an attempt to recoup your losses. Instead, examine your betting methods and reduce your betting amounts until you start winning again. Remember - chasing your losses is the single biggest mistake a punter can make. Once you start winning again, increase your bets slightly, but don't go overboard. Unfortunately, like losing streaks, winning streaks also come to an end.
4. Bet with your head, not your heart
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based on emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's your favorite without considering the real odds. Be selective and remember that you will only find value betting situations in a small number of games. Betting the entire Premier League fixture list every week is a risky proposition at best.
5. Value betting - find low risk high reward action
Successful football betting requires getting value on your bets. Basically this means getting better than the "true" odds on your picks. For instance, if your objective prediction for a game suggests that Arsenal should have fair odds of 1.30, but bookies offer them at 1.50 then this is a value-betting proposition. In this case, the risk to reward ratio is very much in your favour, making Arsenal a strong play.
6. Bet against public opinion
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For example Chelsea or Man United are such teams. High-value bets can often be found by betting against these teams because the bookmakers adjust their odds to reflect the expected amount of public money. Thus, the underdog is often listed with better odds than they realistically deserve.
7. Stay abreast of injuries
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the importance of an injured player and the quality of his substitute. Remember that second-string players are often highly qualified and are especially motivated when replacing a starter, so it often pays to bet on a team missing its best player. The public normally overreacts to injuries so you may find good value in this situation. However, beware of situations where there is more than one injured key player or there is an injury to the team's captain or inspirational leader.