My strategy is based on goals scored by teams. I play mostly
soccer and sometimes basketball. I realised after much time of losing
money that is very hard to choose winners. Instead, goals ( in soccer )
always come very often, for your favourite team or against your favourite
team. Is just a fact.
I played for more than 5 years on 1 ,X ,2 market, handicap market
but I realised, mostly on handicap market that lines are very sharp. I
was constantly losing. Not very fast but losing on long term. I was very
tempted to take asian handicap bets because odds were very good: 1.85 ,
1.95. I thought I needed only little over 50 % winning
bets to win on long term. Well, it was very hard. I was trying to find
all kind of information about a soccer game: injuries and suspensions,
watch soccer game to determine if a team is better or worse than current
standings show .
Nothing really works. I spend much time that didn't helped me to choose my
bet correctly .
Now, my strategy.
As I said, I noticed many goals are scored in soccer games, even
underdog teams score very often. I prefer to bet on goals because humans
commit mistakes many times and goals come right away after defensive
Goals are scored even in 90th minute and you could win in last
minute with a bit of luck. I need at least 2 goals scored to win.
Simple as that. I now play over 1.5 goals at low odds, but at least I am
winning most of the time.
For this strategy to work, I have a range of odds that are accepted:
1.2 ~ 1.35. Odds lower than 1.20 are excluded automatically because risk
is too high for small payout. I noticed as odds get bigger, for example
over 1.35, chances of winning drop very much because there are
informations that I miss for sure.
Of course I want as big odds as possible but for my strategy 1.35 is
maximal odd .
Money management: flat stake , every bet is 5 % of my bank .
Now selection of the games:
A. First I choose leagues where there are many goals scored, for example
Netherland, division 1,2 Austria 2nd league, or Japan League.
Mainly I choose leagues where odds for over 2.5 goals scored are good
enough and still there are scored more than 50 % of the games at least 3
goals. This thing tells me that this championship is open .
B. In every league there are defensive teams and offensive teams. I watch
through statistics and find teams that have at least 80 % of the games
ending with at least 2 goals scored. Is preferable that both teams have at
least 80 % of the games ending with at least 2 goals scored. Usually I
choose middle table teams that have little to play for. I don't like to
bet on derbyes.
C. I try to find informations about teams but for me this isn't too
important because I watch on tv or on internet most of the games I play.
During a good day I choose 4-5 games to bet on this strategy.
D. Once I get my list of bets for today, I don't rush to place my bets.
I use a bookmaker that has many games available for live betting. I
search if a game of mine is available for live betting. If it is I prefer
to wait 10 minutes after game starts then I place my bet. I noticed
that with this little trick I get better odds. If odds were let's say 1.2
before game started, after 10 minutes of play I get few points more.
Every point is important .
With this strategy I have arround 85% succes rate and I am in profit.
Profit isn't nowhere near 100% but at least is a winning strategy. I
prefer smaller but steady profit.