Hi !
My strategy is based on
goals scored by teams. I play mostly
soccer and sometimes
basketball. I realised after much time of losing
money that is very hard to choose winners. Instead,
goals ( in soccer )
always
come very often, for your favourite team or against your favourite
team. Is just a fact.
I played for more than 5 years on
1 ,X ,2 market, handicap market
but I realised, mostly on handicap market that
lines are very sharp. I
was constantly losing. Not very fast but losing on long term. I was very
tempted to take
asian handicap bets because odds were very good:
1.85 ,
1.95. I thought I needed only little over
50 % winning
bets to win on long term. Well, it was very hard. I was trying to find
all kind of information about a soccer game:
injuries and suspensions,
watch soccer game to determine if a team is better or worse than current
standings show .
Nothing really works. I spend much time that didn't helped me to choose my
bet correctly .
Now, my strategy.
As I said, I noticed many goals are scored in soccer games, even
underdog teams score very often. I prefer to
bet on goals because humans
commit mistakes many times and goals come right away after
defensive
mistakes. Goals are scored even in 90th minute and you could win in last
minute with a bit of luck. I need
at least 2 goals scored to win.
Simple as that. I now play
over 1.5 goals at low odds, but at least I am
winning most of the time.
For this strategy to work, I have a range of odds that are accepted:
1.2 ~ 1.35. Odds lower than 1.20 are
excluded automatically because
risk
is too high for small payout. I noticed as odds get bigger, for example
over 1.35,
chances of winning drop very much because there are
informations that I miss for sure.
Of course I want as big odds as possible but for my strategy 1.35 is
maximal odd .
Money management: flat stake , every bet is 5 % of my bank .
Now selection of the games:
A. First I choose
leagues where there are
many goals scored, for example
Netherland, division 1,2 Austria 2nd league, or Japan League.
Mainly I choose leagues where odds for
over 2.5 goals scored are good
enough and still there are scored more than 50 % of the games at least 3
goals. This thing tells me that this championship is open .
B. In every league there are defensive teams and offensive teams. I watch
through
statistics and find teams that have at least 80 % of the games
ending with
at least 2 goals scored. Is preferable that both teams have at
least
80 % of the games ending with at least
2 goals scored. Usually I
choose
middle table teams that have little to play for. I don't like to
bet on derbyes.
C. I try to find informations about teams but for me this isn't too
important because I watch on tv or on internet most of the games I play.
During a good day I choose
4-5 games to bet on this
strategy.
D. Once I get my list of bets for today, I don't rush to place my bets.
I use a
bookmaker that has many games available for
live betting. I
search if a game of mine is available for live betting. If it is I prefer
to wait 10 minutes after game starts then I place my bet. I noticed
that with this
little trick I get
better odds. If odds were let's say 1.2
before game started, after 10 minutes of play I get few points more.
Every point is important .
With this
strategy I have arround
85% succes rate and I am in profit.
Profit isn't nowhere near 100% but at least is a
winning strategy. I
prefer smaller but
steady profit.
Regards
