Golf betting is a notoriously tricky thing for a punter to wrap their heads around, because the fields are large and the courses vary so much. Trying to pick the winner of a golf event is not the same as trying to pick a winner out of a soccer match therefore. There are way more options to look at of course than just two possible winners, so are you just picking the winner out of a hat?
No, firstly it is always worth studying form and course history, and course history for a
player is the ultimate golden rule to assess. You will notice big trends of rookies having
a hard time in competitive play because it is their first time out over a course. So avoid
them. So narrow the field a bit in picking out a winner with the Form + course history stat
combo. However, a golf field takes good shape after the first and second rounds, and usually
a new favourite emerges.
So that is the time to take advantage of laying a bet on the favourite at BetFair. Just for
clarification, when you are laying a bet, you are basically saying that believe an outcome is
not going to happen. Say you lay a bet on a golfer at the top of the leader board after the
second round, then you are staking that he is not going to go on and win. You are backing the
entire rest of the field of the field to beat him.
Watching lay odds can be tricky because knowing just when to strike is the big key to all this.
You don't want to wait, naturally until a leader has ran up a six shot lead heading into the
final round, and you don't want to be too eager while there are a bunch of players all within
one shot of the lead. So always take a plan into a laying a golf favourite. Now we may not be
talking high margin profits here because of the odds on favourite, but again, I like building
small profit rather than going all gung-ho.
So plan and don't just shoot a random lay bet on the favourite because you'll probably end up losing.
Here is the big key to it all: there are times during a round of golf when a favourite is more likely
to screw things up. If there is a difficult run of par 4's coming up, as opposed to a two-shot
drivable par five, then lay you bet ahead of the difficult run, not ahead of the easy hole. This is
the huge benefit of live in play betting. That is the perfect time to lay a favourite in golf.
Plus...stick to wager limits that you have set yourself and stick to a price range.
Of course, it's not always feasible to be tracking things live, so what do I look for when laying
a favourite in golf betting? Odds at the end of a round. Be it at the first, second or third round,
this is a good time to assess stats and form from a performance. Generally around the end of the first
round is the riskiest option of all three, because someone generally shows up with a marvellous round
and then falls away for the other three days. But if there is one of the pre-tournament favourites,
say within a shot or two of the top at the start of day two, then they will probably be a strong option
in the outright market. So whether it is a pre-tournament favourite, or an overnight leader making waves
a favourite, laying them can produce some value.
So look at the odds. One rule of thumb I always use, is be guided by bookmaker odds, as they are never
far from the mark. Laying a favourite at more than 1.8 is probably the limit heading in to day four.
That is around the point where value is at its maximum on the favourite tanking. Again, you are not
going to be looking at high profit margins on laying the favourite at the close of any round,
but anywhere between 2.00 and 3.00 over the first couple of rounds is a decent shot in laying the
favourite. A simple strategy, but it can be employed effectively.