Betting That Something won't Happen
Sports Betting Strategy of MarioHi!
One friend told me about your site. I see you try to collect as many strategies as possible. I checked your site and I like smooth browsing, with little pictures or flash.
I read most of the strategies posted on your site but I couldn't find anything like my strategy.
This strategy is applied to football. I choose my games based on current form. Actually I bet that something won't happen.
W - win ,D -draw , L - lost
I study statistics and search for reccurent events that happened, seeking that after 6 games ( 5 already played ) we won't see a "mirror".
Winning strikes ( W W W W W ), Losing strikes ( L L L L L )and Drawing strikes ( D D D D D ) are excluded for this strategy .
I need balanced games, not hot favourite teams like Inter Milan that has winning strike because is too much risk. For this strategy to work I need games were results are varied. The more varied results are, the better results are for betting .
I search for strikes like W W W L L, in last game we will have L again. This is a "mirror". This is my purpose, I bet that these series will be broken. Take a team and notice results from last 5 mathes played home and away.
For example: W W L W W. I notice that after 2 games played that team lost. I meant after every two games won, this team lost next game. In 6th game I bet that L ( losing ) won't happen.
I take some example from 29th December 2007. This game will be played .
1. Sunderland plays against Bolton.
Sunderland has W L D L L in last 5 games. Bolton has even better than expected for my strategy: W L W L W L W L. Has 6 events, even though 5 were enough for my strategy . This match is selected for betting. My bet is here 1X ( I bet against another win ).
2. Tottenham - Reading.
Tottenham is L W W L W, while Reading is D W D W D. Aparently this game is good for my strategy but as you may notice, both teams are ready to "complete their strikes: win for Tottenham will complete their run, while win for Reading will complete Reading's run. This game is no bet for this strategy. I need only ONE team to have a "mirror" strike.
After I select games according to previous criteria I check odds to determine my stake. Odds below 1.30 aren't accepted. This is how I do: my bank is divided in 100 units. Any bet I made can't have more than 10 units.
If I choose to bet on 1X ( Sunderland example ) I see odds are 1.50. I divide 1/1.50= 0.666 * 10 units = 6.66 units ~ 7 units. This is my stake on this bet .
For other odds: 1/2.20 =0.454 * 10 units ~5 units .
With this money management I try to give more chances to events that are more likely to happen ( events with lower odds ).
To select my games, I need teams form. To do this I use www.betdevil.com, this link: http://www.betdevil.com/gu_matches.php?p=1