Estimating and Comparing Probabilities
Sports Betting Strategy of TheoI have been betting on soccer games for 9 years.
I have tried various betting strategies which I came up with, and have been using a particular strategy that returns the most consistent winnings for nearly 4 years.
Here's how it works:
Before I bet on a game, I always consult the media for information:
- Injured players
- Position in the league table
- The most recent games
- Constant or changing performance by the individual teams
- Anything else that may be important
Thus I only bet on teams if I can obtain enough information about them, and not on some provincial team for Latvia or anything like that.
Based on this information, I estimate the probability of winning for each team. This takes a lot of practice.
Next, I prepare my own odds for the games (based on my estimated probabilities) and compare my odds to those of the internet bookmakers.
Now I bet on the teams for which my bookmaker calculated higher odds than I did.
Although there are times when I lose, I did win a net total of £1,481 over the last 16 months (I have been keeping track for 16 months), always using the same bet of £30 per game (I always bet on individual matches, no accumulators).
If you would like to try it, start with small bets; if you are successful for approximately 3 months, you can slowly start to increase your stake.
I wish all sports bettors the best of success and the bookmakers lots of money to pay out.