Good morning,
I want to share a
strategy I follow with
good results for years,
that is based on
monitoring and
aspirations of
up-and-coming teams.
****
Betting on up-and-coming teams****
This
strategy needs more information gathering than those based on pure statistics
(which are often irrelevant when it comes to a team's present and expected performance).
The principle of it is to
identify and get as
much information as possible about the so
called
second-line teams, which proposedly aim a good result in a season.
Good example for them are
smaller and previously
weaker teams in a national
league, that have pronounced their wish at the beginning of the season to reach
an
Europa League or even Champions League position at the end, behind or together
with the big guns of the league. These teams are characterized by newly acquired
key-players, their emphasis on defence and
1-2 quality strikers, more of which
they can't afford, because of their relatively lower budget.
The
main idea of the
strategy is that these teams can't afford losing points
with weaker ones, so they are almost sure to
win or draw matches with such
teams, to have momentum and enough points to make them affordable the rather
inevitable point-losses with the bigger teams. Bookmakers usually judge them
by their
past performance, and assign higher odds to their
win-or-draw than
their present form and aspirations would require. I especially like to take
them when playing a smaller team after losing a match with a big gun.
On these occasions they are rather merciless to show their stockholders
that they are capable of doing the task and reaching their goals set.
This
strategy also works for
second league teams that had a bad performance
in the first league previous season and aim to reach back there.
Best regards,
Tibor
