2018 World Cup Preview
Having looked at the most likely winners of this summer’s World Cup, the next part of the puzzle is to pick out who will actually be lifting the Jules Rimet trophy aloft on Sunday 15th July in Moscow. As is so often the case, it’s the European nations who occupy most of the spots at head of the market but Brazil are outright favourites and their recent 1-0 win away to Germany (albeit in a friendly game) only served to underline their credentials. We’ll look at the strengths and weaknesses of these leading contenders and make our selections.
Table of Contents
Brazil
Many felt that it was written in the stars four years ago for them to win a sixth World Cup in their own country but that added pressure and expectation – and the intense emotion – caught up with them in the end. Neymar’s injury in the quarter final was also a pivotal turning point as the PSG frontman was the leader of that team and remains so approaching Russia – his return to fitness will be crucial. His individual ability is obvious but he has an influence on the whole squad and just like Pele and Ronaldo in previous World Cup winning teams, is the outstanding talent who will have to carry the burden of expected success across the whole country. Neymar could well light up the whole tournament but Brazil placed too much reliance on him in the last World Cup and sharing the responsibility around the squad will be key to any success Brazil have. The scars of conceding seven goals to Germany in ‘that’ semi-final are still healing and their defence will be under the spotlight again. David Luiz is a notable omission from the squad and the spine of the team looks to be stronger than four years ago, but if there is a weakness then it is the full back areas, both of whom are better going forward and suspect defensively.
Germany
The Germans are just a winning machine and if they don’t win then they often come very close. Their second string and fringe players were good enough to see off the likes of Mexico and Chile 12 months ago in the Confederations Cup but it will be the established stars – many of whom were victorious in 2014 – who will be taking the field this time around when travelling to Russia. All of Germany’s wins – either in the World Cup or European Championships – have had a talismanic striker and that was lacking when losing out to France in the semi-finals of Euro 2016. They tried a number of players in that striker position but none were good enough. They should have no such problems heading into this tournament, though, with RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner set to lead the line. He has an excellent record of seven goals in 12 caps and will be attempting to be the striker the Germans have craved since Miroslav Klose’s retirement. The squad, as you would expect, is loaded with strength so much so that their hero from 2014 – Mario Gotze – has not made the squad. It’s hard to identify any real weakness and if Manuel Neuer recovers in time as he’s expected to, they will not be far away from being the first team to win consecutive World Cups since Brazil followed up in 1962.
Spain
The Spanish national team are favourite of mine having landed some sizable punts in the 2012 European Championships which was arguably a team at their peak as the dismantled Italy 4-0 in the final. The team has completely evolved though following a couple of disappointing showings but there looks to be a perfect mix of experience and emerging stars within this squad. When Cesc Fabregas, Alvaro Morata and Ander Herrera cannot make the final 23-man squad then it illustrates just how strong this Spanish outfit is. They have it all to prove, though, and with this being the coach’s first major tournament he also has to show he can handle all the challenges which the World Cup throws up for a fancied nation. Football has changed quite a bit since Spain ruled the world so it will also be interesting to see how their possession based game stacks up against teams who have found different ways to combat it. Diego Costa has not convinced as a striker for Spain but if he can recreate his impact from club level then he will be ably supported by the best midfield and supply line in the tournament, but that would appear to be a big if.
France
It will probably come as no surprise to learn that my biggest fear for France is the man who is not going to play a minute of football. Didier Deschamps was – for me – largely to blame for the French not winning Euro 2016 despite appearing to have an outstanding chance in the final against Portugal. Some will point to them being unlucky but qualification wasn’t a breeze either and his persistence with some players may yet prove to be his undoing. He has a plethora of attacking options at his disposal, as he does throughout the squad but there must be some concern that certain big names have not enjoyed their best seasons. Paul Pogba has come in for constant criticism at Manchester United, Kylian Mbappe has been good but not outstanding in his first season at PSG and Ousmane Dembele has endured an injury plagued campaign since moving to Barcelona. That may count for little if it all clicks together for a four week period but I revert you back to my original point – Monsieur Deschamps. There’s some who will suggest that a coach is not overly important at this level with such a quality player but they are pivotal at some point during the competition and I would not hold great confidence in France being able to rely on Deschamps having the influence that some of his other counterparts can exude.
Argentina
I think it’s fair to say that Argentina’s biggest strength is Lionel Messi. This is likely to be his last World Cup and perhaps his last ever involvement with his national team. He did retire once already, of course, following a second successive defeat in the Copa America final but he has since returned as captain and continues to carry the weight of Argentina on his shoulders. Him being rested of late for Barcelona could be significant as it was felt he was running on empty four years ago once the tournament entered the final stages. He will be supported by some great offensive talent with Angel Di Maria, Sergio Aguero and Pablo Dybala all capable when in the mood, but you do not have to look too deep for some weaknesses. Their defence has been a mess since the last World Cup whilst their midfield has aged considerably. Messi is great, the best ever in my book, but history has shown us you tend to need more to be crowned World Champions so as much as I would like to see them do it for him alone, they surely cannot go one better with this squad of players?
Selections
There may be 32 teams competing but I would be extremely surprised if the winning country does not come from one of the five listed above. It’s not fashionable to pick one of the favourites but their quality and experience is such that it is difficult to look beyond them. The biggest challenge may be trying to split them as there is not much between the top three in the market. Attempting to predict each of their routes would be arduous with so many different permutations. We all know what can happen however and it would naïve to think that come the end of the group stage if there is an opportunity to ensure an easier route via the knockout stage, teams manufacture the appropriate result…but I’ve had a go and if everything goes to plan then Spain, Argentina and Germany will all end up on the same side of the draw, with France and Brazil on the other side. That would undoubtedly be a big advantage for Brazil, but I would be inclined to focus on the other side of the draw and more importantly, Germany and Spain. The two European superpowers could meet in the semi-final in a repeat of the 2010 World Cup which Spain were victorious. There is honestly very little to separate them but the Germans with their coach and squad arguably have the edge on experience overall and Werner has been a real asset in qualification whilst Spain have still to find their long-term replacement for Fernando Torres or David Villa. It really is very small margins but Germany will be the out right selection for this year’s World Cup and make history by becoming the first European country to defend their crown.
Outright – Germany 9/2 @ Betfair
There may not be huge value in the outright market with virtually everything factored into the price but there are a load of other side markets, as you would expect at this type of tournament, which are worth exploring.
Top Goal Scorer
The usual suspects head the market and Messi is a marginal favourite ahead of Neymar. France’s Antoine Griezmann is the subject of major transfer speculation linking him to join Messi at Barcelona and he is looking to finish with the most goals for the second tournament in a row having notched six at Euro 2016. Cristiano Ronaldo has been sensational for Portugal during qualifying and his role as lone striker will mean he will have many backers but I’m not sold on Portugal’s chances as a whole so happy to leave him alone although he could easily hit five by the quarter final stage which would put him in the running. The Brazilian Ronaldo has the record for most goals in one tournament having scored eight in 2002 but the winning total is usually around five or six. The three things I look for in this market is strength of the group, how far they are likely to go in the competition and their form at international level. It would be folly for me, having backed Germany, to ignore Werner who has been great in qualifying and recent friendly games. He will be the starting centre forward and although the group is stronger than some of his rivals, he looks a sound bet. It’s such a competitive market that it would be wise to back another and Gabriel Jesus could be the best Brazilian to back, as opposed to Neymar. Like Werner this will be Jesus’ first World Cup but nine goals in his 15 caps suggests he has slotted in seamlessly to the Brazil team. Both of these are exciting talents and will surely go far into the tournament. I toyed with the idea of Edison Cavani but Group A has the feel of being a nightmare to predict so happy to go with Jesus and Werner.
Timo Werner 16/1 @ William Hill
Gabriel Jesus 16/1 @ Coral
Name the finalists
I fully accept that this is about as speculative a bet as I could put up and have already alluded to the various permutations which make it a nightmare to predict – but I had some luck in this market four years ago and thought I would try it again. I should note stakes should be kept to a minimum for this. Brazil and Germany would appear the most likely if things go to plan with both teams at the head of the market and if they win their groups will be on the opposite sides of the draw. I would certainly put nobody off backing that at 12/1 but thought in a speculative market why not take a speculative punt and bank on one of Spain or Germany finishing second in their group. Should that happen then they end up in different halves and the prices are worth chancing that.
Spain v Germany 25/1 @ Coral
