The 2019 Copa America begins on 14 June and will conclude on 7 July, with the tournament to be held in Brazil. The tournament consists of 12 teams in total, although not all will be South American with Japan and Qatar invited as guests.
Recent Trends
- There has only been one tournament (2015: Eduardo Vargas & Paolo Guerrero) which resulted in multiple top scorers at the end of the tournament in the last six Copa America’s, with the other five seeing the honour awarded to a single individual (2001: Victor Aristabal; 2004: Adriano; 2007: Robinho; 2011; Paolo Guerrero; 2016: Eduardo Vargas).
- Five of the previous six Copa America top scorers played for the eventual champions.
- A minimum of 4 goals are required to have any chance of finishing tournament top scorer, although every outright winner of the Copa America since 2001 has needed to score at least five times.
Betting Odds Point Towards Messi
If recent form for this tournament holds up, we need only look at nations at the forefront of the outright betting in order to locate the most likely recipient of this year’s Copa America Golden Boot. That is because the champions tend to produce the most Golden Boot winners. Unfortunately for us, this latest edition of a tournament that has been staged 45 times since 1916 looks very competitive.
You could make a reasonable case for most of these teams being potential champions. Argentina and Brazil are perennial favourites, often boasting more recognised talent than their South American counterparts, but both Colombia and Uruguay aren’t far behind them in the market and have the capacity to challenge. Just to drive home how difficult highlighting the winner can be, the last two Copa America champions have yet to be mentioned: Chile are seeking a third successive title.
Even so, the list of potential top scorers is limited to a select few teams. According to bookmakers Lionel Messi boasts the strongest claims and is the clear favourite (3/1), although they do rate his Argentina team behind Brazil in the tournament winner betting. The consensus being that once again the onus on taking La Albiceleste far in the competition will fall on the little magician’s shoulders, as was the case last time around when Messi managed 5 goals (enough for second in the scoring charts) but could not prevent his team from losing in the final on penalties.
It proved too much for him at the 2018 World Cup however; his one solitary goal nowhere near enough to carry a disjointed team any further than the Round of 16.
Other names that fit the criteria are Brazil’s Gabriel Jesus (11/2) and Roberto Firmino (11/1), Uruguay’s famed strike duo of Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez (both players 15/2), Sergio Aguero for Argentina (7/1), and finally Colombia’s Radamel Falcao (14/1). To a lesser extent I will include Peru’s experienced goal-getter Paolo Guerrero (14/1), but, at 35, it may be beyond him as he attempts to end the tournament as the leading scorer for a third time. It’s difficult to make a case for too many others, although I soon plan to at least try.
* All odds displayed were gathered from Betfair at 22:00 10 Jun 2019.
Avoid Brazil’s Striker Dilemma By Backing Richarlison
Brazil are a very short price to win the entire thing (11/10) and anything less than progress to the final (4/6) would be viewed as a monumental disappointment for the hosts. If they win their group, which they should, then a third-place team from either of the other two groups awaits them in the quarter-final. A group consisting of Bolivia, Peru and Venezuela shouldn’t pose too many problems, so the potential for plenty of goals is certainly there for someone.
I say someone because nobody is quite sure who will lead Brazil’s attack. Tite has favoured Gabriel Jesus throughout most of his time as national team manager but did hint after last summer’s World Cup quarter-final heartbreak that it was a mistake not to utilise Roberto Firmino more. If recent rumours are to be believed, it is the Liverpool man who will start the opening game of the tournament.
A strike rate of 1 in 3 for his country is fairly modest by Brazilian standards, although Firmino’s game has never really been about goals but more about bringing others into play and helping the team transition from defensive/passive situations into offensive ones. There are few better in world football at winning the ball in attacking areas of the pitch. Also, a lot of those appearances were as a substitutue.
One player who could profit from a selfless Firmino being in the team is Richarlison. The Everton man has become a firm favourite of the manager who has used him from the start in all four fixtures this year. The player repaid that faith with 5 goals in 10 appearances, which included strikes in both of their recent warm up friendlies for this tournament in wins over Qatar and Honduras.
No midfielder has finished as the leading scorer in a Copa America for 20 years, but the last man to do so was a Brazilian, a man by the name of Rivaldo. A small coincidence, I know, but Richarlison arrives at this tournament with plenty of self-belief and confidence after defying his lofty £50m price tag last summer to produce an impressive debut campaign for Everton in which he notched 13 times and probably should have had more.
Betting Tips
Main Selection: Richarlison Top Tournament Scorer for Brazil – 3/1 888Sport
Value Pick: Richarlison Top Tournament Scorer – 14/1 Betfair
Betting Conclusion
Those who agree that Brazil are rightly favourites can seek out better value if they can correctly predict who will score most for them, as the winner of this tournament usually produces the Golden Boot winner as well. It’s a toss up between Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino as to who starts centrally in attack but Richarlison’s position on the wing appears secure.
The 22-year-old has scored regularly for both club and country over the past twelve months and is a lesson in perseverance when it comes to shooting – often scrutinised for his lack of accuracy and ruthlessness in front of goal, he averaged 2.4 shots per game in the Premier League last season and still managed to score 13 times despite being open to plenty of improvement.
However, Philippe Coutinho (17/1) now has full control of set-pieces with Neymar out injured and could notch a few if recapturing old form.
Uruguay could be dangerous, as usual, and should have improved a year on from their quarter-final defeat to France at the World Cup. They are, however, a team who tend to keep it tight and organised; scoring lots of goals is not something Oscar Tabarez’s side are renowned for. Sergio Aguero could prove decent value if replicating last season’s scoring form at Man City, although the fact he has only played once for the national team since the World Cup is worrying. Lionel Messi is Lionel Messi.
