Algeria V Guinea
Sunday 7 July 2019 – 20:00 Kick-Off
Africa Cup of Nations, Last-Sixteen
Pick: Both Teams to Score
Odds: 15/8
Bookmaker: Betfair
 |
1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/10 | 23/10 | 5/1 |
* (Betting Odds were taken from Betfair on July 5th, 2019 at 13:15)
Preview: Algeria have been flawless up until this point, and their reward for such serene progression is a last-sixteen encounter with a team that could only finish third in their section. That team is Guinea, who were the strongest of all the four best third-place sides to have qualified for the knockout phase and will be out to cause an upset in Cairo, inside the 30 June Stadium.
2019 Africa Cup of Nations Betting at Betfair
Algeria Preview – Fresh legs to make the difference for Fennecs?
Very few teams negotiated the group stage in the confident manner Algeria did. Maximum points acquired from clashes with Kenya (2-0), Senegal (1-0) and Tanzania (3-0) meant they qualified in top spot in Group C, without conceding a goal but still managing to score six of their own – no other team found the net more often. Yet their outright odds have only shortened slightly (8/1 with Bet365).
Such was the ease with which they qualified from their group that coach Djamel Belmadi could afford to rest a number of his key players in the final game with Tanzania, with Riyad Mahrez, Sofiane Feghouli, Yacine Brahimi and Youcef Atal among those not to start in what still turned out to be a routine 3-0 win. So there should be a freshness to The Fennecs for this last-sixteen encounter with a best third-place outfit.
The one aspect which has been particularly impressive has been the defending. Prior to this tournament, Algeria had struggled to keep opposing teams at bay with only two clean sheets in seven before keeping three in a row here, one of which coming against one of the strongest teams at this tournament in Senegal. Whether those old issues resurface anytime soon remains to be seen but Algeria deserve credit for keeping it as tight as they have done so far.
Altogether it is now no loss in nine games in all competitions (W7 D2) following their imperious display in the group stage, scoring at least once in all nine. It’s an almost unprecedented level of consistency that not many others can currently boast heading into the knockout phase of the competition.
Guinea Preview – Can they overcome blow of losing star man?
Their route into the knockout phase of the competition may not have impressed many – not least the bookmakers, who now quote them as 66/1 shots to win the tournament – but Guinea, as a best third-place side, are still involved in proceedings and could yet spring a surprise. Although that would require a significant improvement on their showing in the group stage, which seen them only record one win and register four points.
Those four points, from games with Madagascar (2-2), Nigeria (L0-1) and Burundi (W2-0), were at least a figure no other third-place team could manage. While only DR Congo scored as many goals as them. So Guinea remain a dangerous proposition despite their unconvincing passage through to the next round.
However, life has been made more difficult with the news regarding Naby Keita. Their star man has been ruled out for the remainder of the tournament through injury, which is a significant blow, although it could be a blessing in disguise for the National Elephants. I say that because the only game he started was the 1-0 loss to Nigeria, and his lack of condition was partly to blame for a disjointed overall performance as the team did its best to get the Liverpool midfielder on the ball as much as possible.
A fully fit Naby Keita would have been a huge boost. Without him, Guinea have still managed to collect four points and score as many goals, compared to a zero in both columns in the one game he did play a prominent role in. So it isn’t all doom and gloom, not for a side which still possesses enough talent to remain very competitive.
Key Facts for Algeria V Guinea:
- Algeria won all their games in Group C to extend their current unbeaten run of games to nine (W7 D2).
- Guinea progressed in third place in Group B (W1 D1 L1) and have only one win in their last eight matches (W1 D4 L3)
- Algeria (W3 D1 L3 versus Guinea) won most recent meeting 2-0 in 2017. Five of seven meetings produced both teams scoring.
Betting Summary
Facing a third-place team is usually a big positive, and it still is, but of all the potential opponents Algeria could have faced, Guinea are probably the most dangerous. In fact, there are only three places separating these two countries in the FIFA rankings (Algeria are 68 whereas Guinea are 71), so this could be a more competitive encounter than the betting would have us believe.
One thing is for sure, Algeria bring the superior form into this game. No loss in nine is mightily impressive, while they should be good for at least a goal having also scored in all of those aforementioned fixtures. Guinea don’t keep many clean sheets either – only one in their last six – but have rediscovered their scoring touch after netting four times in the group stage.
Algeria are still to concede at these finals but their defensive form prior wasn’t the best. Guinea have tried to play on the front foot in every game so far and are not afraid to commit numbers forward for attacks. That is unlikely to change here. Both teams to score hasn’t been very profitable so far but this game has enough potential to make odds of 15/8 worth chancing.
