Arsenal V Bolton Wanderers
Wednesday, 20th January – 19:45 GMT
Matt’s Tip: Under 2.5 Goals – 13/8 WilliamHill
Alternative: Over 35 Booking points – 6/4 PaddyPower
We will start with being honest in that this isn’t a selection we fancy a whole lot but we can see a shade of value in banking on this game being a tighter affair than Sunday’s clash at The Reebok, when Arsenal somewhat cantered to a 2-0 victory. The Gunners scythed through Bolton’s midfield and swept aside their defence with consummate ease last Sunday, in a match Bolton started very poorly in. That was Owen Coyle’s first game in charge as the Bolton gaffer and so he has yet to stamp his mark on this robust Bolton group.
However, Coyle’s first game at the helm was met with a mixture of good and bad moments but it was the bad points which evidentially cost his side any chance of claiming any share of the spoils. The bad point was that Bolton’s midfield was pretty much non-existent for the entirety of the game and this allowed Arsenal to go about their business at their leisure. At The Emirates, a stadium where the Gunners will feel far more comfortable in their usual surroundings, it’s imperative that Bolton close the Arsenal players down at every given opportunity, limiting the amount of time and space Arsenal have on the ball. They will also, somehow, have to nullify the threat of an in form Cesc Fabregas, which is certainly easier said than done.
The plus points were that Bolton finished the game strongly, creating more than enough chances to take a point but still managed to flap every single one of them. Their ability to carve open that Arsenal defence and create decent goalscoring chances did impress me but they lacked composure when in the clinical positions and they will be under more pressure at The Emirates if in a similar situation tonight.
As far as our punt on Under 2.5 Goals goes, the big negative is Arsenal could run riot if Bolton set up and play like they did at The Reebok just four days ago. They gave Arsenal far too much space and time on the ball and they will be punished severely at The Emirates if they put in a repeat display. However, the positive point to bare in mind is that Owen Coyle is a smart manager and he will know full well that winning at The Emirates is close to impossible, but gaining a point certainly isn’t. We’re hoping he plays the smart card and travels down to London with a defensive line up in his head and aims to put plenty of men behind the ball to nullify the spaces. This is still a dangerous tactic, especially if Arsenal score early on, but it could pay dividends with a lot of hard work, and Bolton have never shied away from hard work in the past.
Over 35 Booking points: Another possible punt could be in ‘booking points’ (Yellow-10 pts, Red-25pts). There were only three yellow cards in Sunday’s contest between the two, of which Arsenal were on the receiving end of two of those. However, Bolton will have to do a lot of chasing in this game and some clumsy tackles are to be expected. Also, there was a bit of tension in Sunday’s clash, none more so than between Matty Taylor, who was fired up for that encounter, and Cesc Fabregas, and with the likelihood that Owen Coyle will want Cesc Fabregas closed down and tackled at every opportunity, a few yellow cards could be on the cards (excuse the pun).
PaddyPower go 6/4 that tonight’s game at The Emirates accumulates over 35 points worth of bookings. So, 4 yellow cards would make you a winner, while a red card would leave you needing just a couple of yellow’s.
Referee: Mark Clattenburg
Clattenburg has dished out on average 3 yellow cards each game he has officiated in. However, more interestingly, Clattenburg’s last game was the Birmingham City V Manchester United clash. A game he received a lot of flack in after handing out four yellow cards and a red card to Darren Fletcher for an obnoxious challenge. This is his very next outing as referee so he will certainly feel the pressure of some onlooking eyes and we’re hoping for some more rash decisions.
