Arsenal Vs Brighton Betting Tip: Brighton +1AH – 23 May 2021

Gunners overrated for final Emirates outing

Gabriel Martinell / Arsenal ©IMAGO / Pressinphoto 04/29/2021

England Arsenal Vs Brighton England

Sunday 23rd May 2021 – 16:00
English Premier League
Pick: Brighton +1 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 4/5
Bookmaker: Betway
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 21st May 2021)

Preview: In this same fixture last season, Brighton secured their first-ever top-flight away victory against Arsenal with a late Neal Maupay winner. Victory on Sunday for Mikel Arteta’s hosts would therefore not only exact revenge, but keep alive their faint hopes of qualifying for Europe next season.

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Arsenal – Arteta demanding one final push for Europe?

Bernd Leno’s blunder in the 1-0 loss at home to Everton at the end of April seemed to kill off any faint hopes the club had of maintaining their revered record of 26 consecutive seasons in European competition. However, four consecutive victories later, coupled with those above them slipping up, has presented Mikel Arteta and Arsenal (W17 D7 L13) with a partial lifeline heading into the final set of fixtures.

Should Arsenal overcome Brighton at the Emirates on Sunday, the Gunners will qualify for next season’s inaugural Europa Conference League provided that neither Everton or Tottenham win their respective matches. Even the first part of that deal is by no means guaranteed, though, having not beaten the Seagulls in North London in either of the past two campaigns (D1 L1) since a 2-0 win in October 2017.

Home comforts cannot be relied upon either, as Arsenal have lost as many games here as they have won this season (7). They did ease past a West Brom side second from bottom last time out at the Emirates, winning 3-1. However, a three-game winless sequence (D2 L1) preceded it. Although Opta kindly inform us that the Gunners won each of the last 11 home games to have taken place on the final day.

 

Brighton Draw No Bet
3/1

Betfair

 

Brighton – Seagulls don’t like flying too far from the nest?

On Wednesday, Graham Potter masterminded a first Brighton (W9 D14 L14) win against Man City since 1989. That it came in front of nearly 7,500 raucous home supporters inside Amex Stadium made the relatively rare feat – they became only the sixth different team this season to beat Pep Guardiola’s side in the league – all the more sweeter. How will they fare in front of the Arsenal faithful at Emirates Stadium?

The Seagulls are showing plenty of promise in these closing stages of a campaign that wasn’t without its nervy moments. None more so than on 13 January, when a 1-0 loss away to Man City left them two points above the relegation zone in 17th. A rise of one place since then would imply progress has been minimal, however, a third win in five (D1 L1) could, in theory, seem them climb as many as three places.

Forward Neal Maupay netted 90 minute winners in both league meetings last season and is generally vilified by the Arsenal faithful. Unfortunately for Potter, as well as us neutral, the Frenchman is banned for Sunday. Brighton are in strong scoring form nonetheless, with seven in four games. The majority were at home, though, whereas on the road they have managed a meagre seven in ten league outings in 2021.

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Arsenal Vs Brighton Betting Advice

Initially I was taken in by Arsenal’s recent form. The Gunners are finishing strongly now that they don’t have European commitments, recording four straight wins in the league for the first time under Mikel Arteta. However they were fortunate to win a couple of those, while West Brom caused them all sorts of problems defensively last time out at the Emirates (xG: ARS 1.22 – 1.93 WBA), despite a 3-1 win.

 

Arsenal Vs Brighton – Key Facts:

  • A 2-1 win in this fixture last season earned Brighton their maiden top-flight victory away to Arsenal, in what was their seventh attempt (D2 L4).
  • Arsenal have won four consecutive Premier League games, last managing more in October 2018. Five out of six home wins this season were despite conceding at least one goal.
  • Brighton boast two wins in four in the league (D1 L1). The Seagulls netted at least once away to Everton, Leeds, Liverpool, Man Utd, Tottenham and West Ham – all top-half sides, as Arsenal also are.

 

Brighton, too, are in fine fettle, beating champions Man City in midweek to make it seven points from four games. All those were earned at home, though, whereas it is one win in seven away. Six of eight away defeats this season were by a single goal, so they are competitive on the road despite their toils. Meanwhile Arsenal do give teams a chance at home: keeping three clean sheets and winning only seven of 18.

Best Betting Odds – Arsenal Vs Brighton

Arsenal – 8/13 (BetVictor)
Draw – 16/5 (Betfair)
Brighton – 9/2 (BetFred)