Aston Villa Vs Leicester City
Tuesday 28th January 2020 – 19:45 Kick-Off
English League Cup (EFL Cup)
Pick: Leicester to WIN
Odds: 3/4
Bookmaker: Betway
(All betting odds in this article were correct at time of writing: January 26th 2020 at 15:00)
Preview: After playing out a 1-1 draw at the King Power Stadium, this first semi-final between Aston Villa and Leicester City is evenly poised ahead of a second-leg at Villa Park.
Table of Contents
Aston Villa Preview – Villa Park a boost to final prospects?
Once the four semi-finalists were confirmed, it was clear Aston Villa were the weakest of the remaining contingent. The team all others hoped to face. After all, this is a group that has struggled to keep itself above the Premier League relegation zone for much of this season, currently languishing two places above it in sixteenth. It was hardly a surprise, therefore, when for nearly the entirety of the first-leg Villa very much played up to their pre-match billing as significant underdogs.
Some of the statistics produced at the King Power three weeks ago were damning. Dean Smith’s side seen much less of the ball (around 30%) whilst struggling to create meaningful scoring opportunities throughout. Full-back Frederic Guilbert somehow opened the scoring against the run of play and from their only shot on target of the whole match. For some context, Leicester located the target six times and could consider themselves unfortunate not to be leading on aggregate.
So it will not be lost on supporters that only a vastly improved performance on Tuesday at Villa Park – or possibly another profligate display from the opposition – will be enough to ensure safe passage into a ninth League Cup final. Their record at home throughout the campaign is encouraging on this particular front, then: Villa are averaging over twice as many points at home (1.42 – W5 D2 L5) and thus are a more capable and competent outfit on their own patch.
Leicester City Preview – Foxes to make no mistake second time around?
While not exactly a vintage performance, it was clear for all to see that Leicester were the superior side at the King Power Stadium. Some uncharacteristically poor defending (at that stage of the season) set them back early, however a tactical tweak at half-time from manager Brendan Rodgers helped shift the balance of power almost entirely. The Foxes would later dominate the second period, eventually being rewarded for their dogged persistence through an equalising goal from substitute Kelechi Iheanacho.
Unsurprisingly, Leicester are still considered the more likely to progress. This is perhaps on account of their stellar efforts in the first half of the season, sitting only three points behind Man City in third in the Premier League table. The fact this team have already visited Villa Park once this season and came away with a handsome 4-1 victory must also bolster their appeal. Since that success in early December, however, their fortunes have somewhat waned a little.
The Foxes were a model of consistency for much of the campaign but have started to display some frailties since the hectic festive period, winning five of twelve matches in all competitions (W5 D3 L4) since cruising to victory at Villa Park. Jamie Vardy was on target twice that day but remains a doubt. Perhaps even more alarming, though, has been the rapid decline of one of the strongest defences in the country up until very recently, keeping just one clean sheet across this aforementioned spell.
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Betting Summary
Leicester really ought to have made their superiority count at home but failed to convert their numerous chances. Where as Aston Villa were fortunate to escape with a draw after taking their one meaningful opportunity of the first-leg. Villa will surely offer more in attack at Villa Park, as the crowd urges them forward. This could play into the hands of the visitors, though, whose swift and incisive counter-attacks are among the best around – though the potential absence of Jamie Vardy could negate this to some extent.
Aston Villa Vs Leicester City – Key Facts:
- Leicester have won seven of twelve (W7 D1 L4) away fixtures during this Premier League term.
- Aston Villa earned five of their seven league victories so far this season at Villa Park (W5 D2 L5).
- December’s league encounter at Villa Park ended 4-1 in favour of visiting Leicester – a fourth win for The Foxes across the previous eight competitive meetings (W4 D2 L2).
Earlier in the season, Villa were rolled over as the home side. Leicester were magnificent that day but have since struggled to reach those heights, failing to win in seven of their previous twelve matches in league and cup whilst conceding at least one goal in nine of them. That leads me to believe the hosts can contribute here. Though, I suspect, the superior quality on show from the visitors will ultimately prevail. Leicester & Over 3.5 Goals appeals at 15/8 (Boylesports).
Best Betting Odds for Aston Villa Vs Leicester City
Aston Villa – 18/5 WilliamHill
Draw – 10/3 Unibet
Leicester City – 3/4 Betway
