Benin V Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, 29 June 2019 – 21:00 Kick-Off
Africa Cup of Nations, Group F
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals – 13/8 BetVictor
Preview: Neither of these two nations have ever won a match at the Africa Cup of Nations before. Benin will be feeling more confident about their prospects of a maiden victory; they are the higher ranked side (88 v 118) and produced a creditable performance in their 2-2 draw with Ghana in the opening game. Guinea-Bissau, meanwhile, were comfortably beaten by Cameroon 2-0 and would need to produce a significant upgrade on that showing if they are register an elusive first win.
Recent Trends
- Benin haven’t lost any of their last four matches (W3 D1), with four of their last producing both teams to score.
- Guinea-Bissau have won only one of their last eleven games (W1 D3 L7), conceding at least two goals on ten occasions during this period.
- This will be the first meeting between the two countries, who have both never won a game at an Africa Cup of Nations finals.
Benin Preview
Three previous appearances at these finals returned no wins in nine matches. That was Benin’s miserable record at previous Africa Cup of Nations, which has now stretched to ten without a win following their 2-2 draw with Ghana in the first group game. It will have felt like a missed opportunity as well; taking an early lead and playing the final quarter with a man advantage but still not quite getting it done.
Scoring twice against a strong Ghana side is at least one positive to take from that first outing, as were the facts they enjoyed more possession and created twice as many scoring chances (14). The Squirrels, as they are affectionately nicknamed, were the better side and should take plenty of confidence from the display. The draw also extended their current unbeaten run to four (W3 D1), having secured a couple of victories in warm up fixtures versus Guinea (1-0) and Mauritania (3-1).
The pressure will, however, firmly be on them now ahead of this game versus the lowest ranked side in the group. This will be their best opportunity to finally earn that elusive first AFCON victory. If that is to happen, a big improvement defensively is required. Just one clean sheet in the last five games is a concern and places greater emphasis on the forwards firing – which, to their credit, they have managed to do recently with Mickael Pote scoring both goals against Ghana and Steve Mounie even netting a hat-trick in that final warm up game.
Guinea-Bissau Preview
It always felt too big of an ask, and so it proved as Guinea-Bissau – making only their second ever appearance at an Africa Cup of Nations – begun with a 2-0 loss to the defending champions, Cameroon. The scoreline might have been even bigger had it not been for some wayward finishing. So there is much to improve upon for the team ranked 118 in the FIFA Rankings, who now know they require a positive outcome from their remaining games.
That result leaves them bottom of Group F. Realistically, only a win will do here, in what is evidently their easiest game of the group. How a team badly out of form and with a habit for conceding far too many goals goes about achieving that objective remains to be seen, because it is difficult to get excited about their prospects on the back of one win in their past eleven matches.
In nine of those they conceded at least two goals, including in each of their three fixtures this year (Cameroon 2-0, Angola 2-0, Mozambique 2-2). It is a recipe for not winning football games if ever there was one.
Moreover, it is enough of a challenge trying to predict where goals of their own creation will derive. As this is a side that has failed to find the back of the net in three of their last four games, with the the most prolific forward being 30-year-old Frederic Mendy, with 4 goals in 12 caps. It’s a figure double that of anybody else in the squad. It’s a riddle they need to solve quickly, as only three points will be deemed sufficient here.
Betting Tip
Over 2.5 Goals – 13/8 BetVictor
Betting Summary
The prospect of goals feels healthy in this game. Both these sides will be desperate for the win. Not simply because neither has managed one at the finals of an Africa Cup of Nations before and will be keen to put that right, but because both are well aware of the likelihood of points being hard to come by from their final group games (they’ll face Cameroon and Ghana). So it has a ‘now or never’ feel about proceedings.
It helps the cause that neither can defend. Benin have conceded at least one goal in four of their last five while Guinea-Bissau have one clean sheet in their previous eleven games. Benin should win in fairness; their three victories this year is a huge upgrade on the form of their opponents, who are without a win in their last four (D2 L2).
The better bet, at more appealing odds, would appear to be goals though, between two teams desperately in need of a win and whom seemingly cannot defend, particularly after witnessing their efforts to do so in the first games.
