Brighton Vs Man City Betting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals – 23 October 2021

Can City avoid another European hangover?

Lewis Dunk / Brighton ©IMAGO / Shutterstock 16.10.2021

England Brighton Vs Manchester City England

Saturday, 23 October 2021 – 17:30 (BST)
English Premier League
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: Evens
Bookmaker: BetVictor
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 21 October 2021)

Preview: Following up a five star performance in midweek could take some doing by Manchester City. Especially as opponents Brighton, who produced one of the upsets of last season to beat the eventual champions 3-2 at The Amex, are enjoying their best ever start to a Premier League season.

English Premier League Betting at Betfair


Brighton – Potter would gleefully accept fourth straight draw?

It is now three games without a win for Brighton, who remain in the lofty position of fourth despite drawing for the third game running last time out at Carrow Road against bottom side Norwich. Since their promotion to the Premier League in 2017, no club has drawn more often (53) or seen more goalless scorelines (19) in the competition than the Seagulls. If given the chance, they would probably settle for another on Saturday.

Last season, Brighton came from 2-0 down at The Amex to record their first ever victory over Man City, in what was their tenth attempt. Meanwhile, their three goals in that game were more than they managed in all eight of their previous encounters. They are a big price to repeat the same trick, understandably, but with one loss all season (W4 D3 L1) it would be premature to dismiss their chances outright.

The fixture list has been relatively kind until now, though, facing just three teams that finished in the top half last time around. Brighton ended up losing to one of those when well beaten at home by Everton. Since then, however, they have gone unbeaten in five and taken four points from six across recent home games against Arsenal and Leicester City – sides that finished eighth and fifth, respectively, last season.


Man City 1-0 Win (Correct Score)



Manchester City – Cityzens vulnerable following European outing?

Pep Guardiola rotated his pack for last week’s 2-0 win over Burnley at the Etihad. The benefits of which were on full display in midweek as his refreshed charges returned with aplomb, thrashing Club Brugge 5-1 in the Champions League over in Belgium. That was the fifth occasion this season City scored five or more. Less remarkable, however, has been their recent record when playing immediately after a European fixture.

Man City failed to win the last four league games to have taken place straight after a match in Europe (D2 L2). This has already occurred twice this season, held away at Liverpool (2-2) and Southampton (0-0) within days of featuring in the Champions League. Bearing in mind they lost this fixture last season, Guardiola may wish to delve into his deep squad once again in order to ensure energy levels remain high.

Regardless of the team named, City are heavy favourites to make it eight wins from nine against Brighton in the Premier League. Five of those victories saw them bank a clean sheet in the process. Something they also managed in seven of nine subsequent league games since sustaining that 3-2 defeat at Brighton back in May, with both away wins so far this term, against Chelsea and Leicester, coming ‘to nil’.

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Brighton Vs Manchester City Betting Advice

On average this season, Brighton’s league games at The Amex have seen 1.75 goals, which is a modest sum. Three of four said matches went below the Over 2.5 threshold, while two seen them record clean sheets: versus Arsenal and Watford. The arrival of Man City surely threatens this, though. Pep Guardiola’s men fresh from scoring five during the week having netted 33 in just 12 games in all competitions this term.


Brighton Man City – Key Facts:

  • When Brighton came from 2-0 down to beat Man City 3-2 at The Amex last season, they ended a run of seven successive defeats (five of them ‘to nil’) to the Cityzens.
  • There have been just seven goals in four Brighton Premier League home games this season. While three of Man City’s four away produced only one.
  • Man City haven’t found themselves behind at half-time in a single Premier League game so far (W3 D5 at HT). However Brighton led at the break in two of their four home matches.


After back-to-back goalless draws, Brighton are unlikely to take too many risks in search of a breakthrough. From a defensive point of view, their actual goals conceded (5) and Expected Goals Against (8.1 according to Opta) are among the very best in the division, while only Man City themselves are facing fewer shots on target. Moreover, City’s two away league wins this season came via the same scoreline: 1-0.

Best Betting Odds – Brighton Vs Manchester City

Brighton – 7/1 (WilliamHill)
Draw – 15/4 (Betway)
Manchester City – 2/5 (BetVictor)