Champions League Betting Preview and Selections

Juve can reign supreme in Europe

Champions League Tips

Over the last 10 years of the Champions League, Barcelona have won it four times, Real Madrid twice and AC Milan, Manchester United, Inter Milan, Chelsea and Bayern Munich have each won it once. Four of those clubs are not even competing in it this season but you can expect the other three – Barca, Real and Bayern – to be there at the business end once again. The consistency those three clubs show year in, year out is incredible, and although there is an argument that their continuous presence at the semi final stage could be seen as anti competitive, they certainly set the standard for all the other clubs to aspire to. Atletico Madrid have embraced that challenge of late, whilst Juventus and Dortmund have also managed to reach the final. It’s no surprise to see that the aforementioned ‘big three’ occupy the top three positions in the market with Barcelona one again the favourites. Before we select the outright winner, however, I have three selections to qualify for the last 16.

Group Stage

My main selection for the group stage is in Group E where Tottenham head the betting to top the section, ahead of Bayer Leverkusen. That’s probably not a massive shock as they come from two of the big four leagues and have an array of quality in their squads. Spurs are not regulars in this competition by any means, though, and as I have alluded to before, experience counts for so much. Leverkusen are one of those teams who promise so much but so often fail to deliver. For teams who do not possess the same experience or squad depth as the more illustrious clubs in England and Germany, there is a valid argument to make that the exertions of combining both domestic and European football may well catch them out. The French league is certainly not at the level and Monaco have impressed me in the early part of the season. Although they were humbled by Spurs at White Hart Lane in the Europa League last term, the current prices is not an accurate representation of their chances, in my opinion. Monaco have a good track record and have already shown improvement with their defeat of PSG. They also had one of the hardest routes via the playoffs and they can build on that momentum by qualifying for the last 16.

The second selection comes from Group B where again I am surprised at how the market looks – this time for group winners. Top seeds and perennial group stage participants Benfica are only second favourites to progress from their section behind Napoli. Benfica have qualified for the knockout stages in two of the last four seasons, reaching the quarter finals on both occasions, and although they have lost Renato Sanches over the summer, they remain well placed to be more than competitive in their group. Napoli have also lost their star man during the close season which places so much emphasis, not to mention pressure, on Arkadiusz Milik who was signed as Higuain’s replacement. The team from Naples are very exciting going forward which could well see them by this stage but it could well be their undoing latterly, as it so often comes at the expense of defensive solidity. I had considered advising the forecast for both Benfica and Napoli to progress but with the the current odds on the Portuguese champions to top the group, I’ve decided to opt for their experience and ability to negotiate this phase of the competition by backing them to win their group and justify their position as top seeds.

The third and final selection before concentrating on the outright market is possibly not the best value bet of all time but it’s a solid pick which is why I am putting it up. Group F pits two olds rivals in Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund against each other, two sides who have faced each other on a number of occasions at different stages of the Champions League, recently. Real are, of course, the current holders and they always seem to stroll this part of the competition, steamrolling lesser teams of which Sporting and Legia would both fall into that category. Dortmund will obviously prove more problematic as their squad looks packed full of attacking quality but they remain a level below that of Zidane’s men. The Germans will have too much for the others in the group, though, so back Real to finish top and Dortmund to fill second spot in a straight forecast.

Outright Betting

As I have touched upon above, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are the favourites with the bookmakers to win this season’s Champions League. Despite being knocked out at the quarter final stage last term, Luis Enrique’s men head the market which is no surprise considering they possess the talents of Suarez, Neymar and Messi, and the introduction of Paco Alcacer and Andre Gomes from Valencia will add depth to the squad. Carlo Ancelotti knows exactly what it takes to win this competition and with Renato Sanches and Mats Hummels on board, Bayern Munich will be in the mix as well come the final stages next year. Probably most surprising is the 11/2 on offer for the champions to retain the trophy. Maybe it’s because no team has ever won consecutive titles but Real would be the most interesting of the big three at the current prices, in my view.

I’m pretty happy to leave all those teams alone, though, and concentrate my selections elsewhere. My first pick in the outright market is Italian champions Juventus who came so close to winning their first Champions League since 1996 when finishing runners up in 2015. Paul Pogba may have moved to Manchester Untied but the team actually looks stronger than it has for a while. Higuain is a massive coup for them and he’ll me their attack more dynamic, whilst the midfield has been strengthened with the arrivals of Miralem Pjanic and Axel Witsel. Max Allegri has hinted that his team will operate slightly differently this term but they will still be a formidable defensive unit and that is so crucial in the latter stages. I felt they were a touch unlucky when exiting to Bayern back in March, and that should provide them with further motivation to succeed this season. Another reason why I like Juve’s chances is because their utter dominance of the Italian league should allow them to rotate their personnel in the latter part of the campaign which could be an advantage if faced with the likes of Barca or Real.

The second selection is an old favourite of mine and a repeat of last season – Atletico Madrid. Having come agonisingly close to landing our bets back in May, Simeone and his men will be hungrier than ever and must feel their time will be coming soon. It was an injury time equaliser back in 2014 that prevented them from lifting the trophy whilst they were undone by penalties in the San Siro three months ago, both against their bitter rivals Real. Over the course of the domestic season they may well fall short against Barcelona and Real Madrid, but in this format they can beat anybody on their day – whether that is in a two-legged tie or a one off game. The signings of Nico Gaitan Kevin Gameiro have added to their attack and will support the excellent Antoine Griezmann who goes from strength to strength in that lone striking position. They are excellent defensively and Simeone has proven to be master tactician. I would not be surprised if he targets this competition now in preference to a title challenge, such is his and the club’s desire to succeed at the top level of European football.

Group Stages

Monaco to qualify 7/4 @ Betbright

Benfica to finish top 5/2 @ Ladbrokes

Real Madrid/Borussia Dortmund straight forecast 6/5 @ Skybet

Outright

Juventus 12/1 @ Ladbrokes

Atletico Madrid 15/1 @ 888sport