Cody Garbrandt vs Raphael Assuncao Betting Tip – Assuncao To Win – 7th June 2020

Defensive Assuncao can stay the distance with Garbrandt

United StatesCody Garbrandt vs Raphael AssuncaoBrazil
7th June 0430hrs
MMA – Las Vegas – UFC
Pick Assuncao
Bookmaker Bet365
Odds: 5/4 odds taken 18:18 GMT, Friday 5th June

An interesting bout this one is near the top of the card for Saturday in Las Vegas. Neither of these fighters have very much form behind them at the moment, so this is a big chance for someone to put something on the board.

Bet at Bet365


Can Garbrandt stop the rot?

Former UFC bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt has lost his last three fights. The first of those was when he gave up that bantamweight crown against TJ Dillashaw in November 2017.

He went back up against Dillashaw in August of the following year and the result was the same, a loss by TKO. In his most recent action, Garbrant faced Pedro Munhoz in Las Vegas in early March 2019. Garbrandt was stopped in the first.

So that’s not only three losses, but three losses by a knockout. So you have to go back to that 2016 success against Dominick Cruz for the American’s last success in the octagon.

Our betting prediction:
Assuncao on points

Bet at Bet365

(odds taken 18:18 GMT, Friday 5th June)

The career record of Garbrandt is now 11-3, but nine of his victories have been by a knockout. He currently averages 1.6 knockdown per 15 minutes, the best in bantamweight history.

One huge asset of Garbrandt is that his takedown defence is superb. So therein lies the question about his tactics and what he may do on the weekend.

He has tried to just stand and slog things out in his last three fights.

That hasn’t gone well and it suggests that he just doesn’t have the chin for that kind of fight, despite the fighter himself saying that he has fixed that issue.


Can a defensive display reward Assuncao?

The natural style of Raphael Assuncao is defensive. It’s a big strength of his, but it has perhaps kept him away from big title fights.

He has dropped his last two fights. The first of those was against Marlon Moraes in his home country of Brazil, by submission. Then he took on Cory Sandhagen at UFC 21 in August last year and went the distance to lose on a decision.

Those two setbacks happened after a four-fight winning streak that he had put together. Assuncao is ranked 9th in the bantamweight division of the UFC at the moment.

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There is a big contrast between these two fighters when it comes to style. Assuncao has a 27-7 pro record.

Only four of those wins have been by a knockout. 10 have been by submission and 13 by decision.

So he is someone that relies on the defensive side more than punching power. So he will probably try and avoid a slugfest against Garbrandt and frustrate his opponent.


Cody Garbrandt vs Raphael Assuncao Betting Advice

Nine of Assuncao’s last ten fights have gone to three rounds. The Brazilian knows how to stick around and therefore the results that he has put up dictates that he is most likely to win this by a decision, which is an 11/4 option* (betting odds taken from Bet365 at 02:10 GMT on Saturday, June 6th 2020)


Key Facts – Cody Garbrandt vs Raphael Assuncao Betting Tip

  • Cody Garbrandt has been knocked out in his last three bouts
  • Cody Garbrandt has lost his last three fights
  • Only 4 of Raphael Assuncao’s 27 wins have been by knockout


We are a little unconvinced about Garbrandt who doesn’t look like he can take a serious pounding on the chin. But then his opponent isn’t too likely to be working towards that kind of opening.

So this may be a slower, controlled fight dictated by the defence of the Brazilian. Because of that it is worth considering the fight going the distance. That is in favour of the underdog.


The best betting odds for Cody Garbrandt vs Raphael Assuncao

Cody Garbrandt to win: 4/6 at Bet365
Raphael Assuncao: 5/4 at Bet365