DR Congo V Uganda
Saturday 22 June 2019 – 15:30 Kick-Off
International; Africa Cup of Nations
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals – 8/11 SkyBet
Recent Trends
- DR Congo qualified for this tournament with a record of W4 D1 L1, GF8 GA6.
- Uganda qualified for this tournament with a record of W4 D1 L1, GF7 GA3.
- DR Congo have drawn six of their last eight games, five finishing with a 1-1 scoreline.
- Uganda have only tasted defeat once in the past two years (W4 D5 L1).
DR Congo Preview
Former two-time champions. Progress to the quarter-finals or better in the last two editions of the tournament. DR Congo boast the sort of credentials that should earn them plenty of respect at these finals and certainly qualifies them as worthy potential dark horses at 20/1.
The problem is, their record in qualifying was indifferent to say the least. A record of W2 D3 L1 was only good enough for second place, behind Zimbabwe. Goals were scored on a regular basis – they were one of the few teams to score in all six group games – but, unfortunately for them, not in large enough quantities: their 3-1 win against Congo was the only match in which they scored more than one goal.
Their form in the warm up games weren’t the most encouraging either. A goalless draw with Burkina Faso was followed by a score draw versus Kenya, meaning they haven’t scored more than one goal in any game in the last two years (eight matches). Meanwhile, five of their last eight games in all competitions have ended with a 1-1 scoreline.
A few recognisable names are likely to start this opening game. West Ham’s Arthur Masuaku gives them plenty of pace and crossing ability on the flank, midfielders Chancel Mbemba and Youssouf Mulumbu have both sampled the English Premier League, as has Everton winger Yannick Bolasie, who used to possess plenty of trickery and direct running before injuries reined him in.
The star, undoubtedly, will be striker Cedric Bakambu, who cost £35million when moving to China in 2018 (where he has subsequently scored at a rate of almost a goal a game) and has 8 goals in 20 caps for his country. The 28-year-old scored three times in qualifying.
Uganda Preview
It is no small achievement for Uganda to be making their second successive appearance at the Africa Cup of Nations. This is a nation that had failed in every attempt at qualification from 1980 onwards until finally seeing their persistence rewarded in 2017. Expectations may need be kept in check however, initially at least; one point and one goal scored was all they had to show for their efforts two years ago as they exited at the group stage.
This time The Ugandan Cranes find themselves in with hosts Egypt, Zimbabwe and Democratic Republic of the Congo, also known as DR Congo. Topping the group might prove tricky (10/1 to do so) but a runners-up spot is certainly attainable, especially if they continue to make themselves very difficult to beat.
They topped their qualification group ahead of Tanzania, finishing with a record of W4 D1 L1 as they eye-catchingly kept a clean sheet in all but one game. Coach Sebastien Desabre clearly has them much more well organised this time around and their form in 2019 has been similarly encouraging: four played (W1 D3), no losses (excluding penalty shoot-outs) and only the one goal conceded.
Unfortunately their resoluteness at the back has come at the expense of their forward play, with only two goals scored in their last five matches. They did, however, demonstrate their ability to win without the need for thrills with a 1-0 win over one of the pre-tournament favourites in a recent warm up game, beating Ivory Coast. Goals or not, Uganda will put up plenty of resistance at these finals.
Betting Tips
Main Selection: Under 2.5 Goals – 8/11 SkyBet
Value Pick: Draw – 5/2 SkyBet
Betting Summary
This has the hallmarks of a cagey game. Their qualifying games comfortably averaged below two goals a game, with neither finding goals easy to come by but both posting some strong defensive numbers. So the likelihood of this being a thrilling encounter with lots of goalmouth action appear slim.
Put simply, neither team score enough to warrant much support in the Match Odds market. The draw would appeal more; in games played this year DR Congo have drawn 2/3, while for Uganda it was 3/5. It is impossible to ignore the obvious, though, and that is the prospect of a low scoring game.
Surprisingly, fewer than three goals is reasonably priced at 8/11. It may not be the most original of bets but it is certainly one that makes a lot of sense here.
