Egypt V South Africa
Saturday 6 July 2019 – 20:00 Kick-Off
Africa Cup of Nations
Pick: Mohamed Salah To Score & Egypt Win
Odds: 6/4
Bookmaker: Boylesports
 |
1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13 | 12/5 | 5/1 |
* (Betting Odds were taken from Boylesports on July 4th, 2019 at 14:55)
Preview: Another raucous crowd is expected to fill out the Cairo International Stadium this weekend, with the host nation back in action in the last-sixteen of the Africa Cup of Nations. Egypt will be looking to build on their winning momentum from the group stage, which seen them record three straight wins. The Pharaohs will be fancying their chances of a fourth here, against a South Africa side which barely scraped through as a best third-place team.
2019 Africa Cup of Nations Betting at Boylesports
Egypt Preview – Perfect Pharaohs surely too strong?
The hosts are back in action, which means another packed out Cairo International Stadium as Egypt set out to entertain the masses once more. So far the fans have not been disappointed. Utterly dominant in Group A, The Pharaohs recorded three successive wins over Zimbabwe (1-0), DR Congo (2-0) and Uganda (2-0) to top the section without as much as conceding a single goal. It will come as no surprise to learn their tournament odds have shortened (4/1 best available).
One of the more impressive trends behind Egypt’s success so far has been their consistency in not only scoring the first goal but doing so reasonably early. The seven-time African champions have been leading at half-time in every game, so backing Egypt/Egypt in the HT/FT betting would have turned a tidy profit (that bet is 33/20 with Ladbrokes). In fact, all five of their goals have been scored in the first half, two of which by star man Mohamed Salah who has his sights firmly set on the Golden Boot.
Nobody has averaged more shots at these finals than Salah (5-per-game according to WhoScored.com), and with penalties and free-kicks in his locker looks the best bet to open the scoring even if his odds are on the short side. However, their outstanding performer has arguably been playing on the opposite flank, with Trezeguet’s willingness to run at defenders and beat a man key to Egypt unlocking some stubborn defences.
Egypt are very short odds to win this fixture inside 90 minutes, which feels entirely justified. Their 100% record in the group phase has extended their current winning streak to five in all competitions, while a 1-0 loss to Nigeria in a friendly back in March (that was without Salah in the side) remains their only defeat in the past twelve months (W9 D1 L1).
South Africa – Are Bafana Bafana capable of huge upset?
No country benefited more from the new tournament format than South Africa. Despite falling to defeats in two of their three games in Group D, Bafana Banafa sneaked through to the knockout phase as one of four best third-place teams. Just two nations have larger odds to win this competition than theirs (66/1 with Bet365), which underlines how fortunate they are to still be involved in proceedings.
Progress out of a tough Group D needn’t have been so messy either. A point from their final group game with Morocco would have been enough to seal their place in the next round without the stress of relying on other outcomes, but a late goal scuppered those plans as South Africa slumped to their second 1-0 loss of the competition. All their games have so far finished with the same scoreline: a narrow loss to Ivory Coast preceded a crucial win over Namibia, both by 1-0 scores.
It’s clear South Africa haven’t come to play expansive, thrilling football. Stuart Baxter has tried to set his team up to be difficult to break down, and that has worked to an extent with the scoring in every game kept to a minimum. Exactly one goal was scored in all of their games, with each of them arriving in the second half. WilliamHill offer 13/5 on this game producing exactly one goal, with the same bookmaker going 23/20 about the second half producing the most goals.
South Africa have looked poor all tournament and victory here would go down as a monumental upset. Their recent form now reads one win in seven (W1 D4 L2) and their displays have backed that up; they’ll sit back and try to soak up pressure but apart from Percy Tau’s fleeting moments of quality, rarely do they pose a threat in the attacking third.
Egypt V South Africa Key Facts
- Egypt dominated in Group A, progressing with a 100% record and without conceding a goal.
- South Africa progressed from Group D as a best third-place team despite only winning one game (W1 D0 L2)
- Under 2.5 Goals would have been a winning bet in all six of these side’s respective group games.
Betting Summary
Considering the contrasting nature of their progression to this stage, I was surprised Egypt weren’t shorter odds. Their 100% record so far does flatter them a little, as all of their opponents to date caused them a few problems despite the comfortable scorelines suggesting otherwise. Nevertheless, Egypt still won all three with plenty to spare and are bidding to win a sixth match in a row.
South Africa will play for a low-scoring outcome, because that is seemingly all this team is capable of doing. They seriously struggled to create openings against Ivory Coast and Morocco, while they didn’t exactly overrun Namibia either. Now they must find a way of not only denying Salah and company but also scoring past a defence which has yet to concede. Tall order.
Egypt have been ahead at half-time in every game so far, although South Africa’s negative approach might threaten that trend here. All six of their combined respective matches at this tournament have produced two goals or fewer and an Egypt win + Under 2.5 Goals is interesting at 15/8 with PaddyPower. Instead, back the ever insatiable Salah firing his team to victory for the third game in a row.
