FC Koln Vs Holstein Kiel
FC Koln Vs Holstein Kiel Wednesday 26 May 2021 – 17:30 (BT Sport)
German Bundesliga Play-Off
Pick: Both Teams to Score
Odds: 9/10
Bookmaker: Betfair
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 24th May 2021)
Preview: A spot in the Bundesliga from next season is at stake on Wednesday inside RheinEnergieStadion, the venue for the first-leg of the promotion/relegation play-off between FC Koln and Holstein Kiel. Can the latter, seeking to become the 57th club to feature in the German top tier, upset the odds in Cologne?
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Table of Contents
FC Koln – Billy Goats live to fight another day?
Without the late intervention of defender Sebastiaan Bornauw, who waited until four minutes from the end of normal time in the final match to net his only goal of 2020/21, FC Koln would have been coming to terms with automatic relegation to Bundesliga 2. As it is, Sunday’s 1-0 victory over already relegated Schalke earned them a second shot at extending their Bundesliga tenure into a third successive term.
The Billy Goats were good value for what was ultimately only a slender victory on the final day, racking up an Expected Goals figure in excess of 1.5 for the fourth league game running. A run ignited by a 2-1 home win over second-place RB Leipzig – significant for the fact Koln hadn’t won in nine previously – as Friedhelm Funkel’s charges closed out with 10 points from the last five games (W3 D1 L1).
Each of those three wins in this sequence were by a solitary goal, as was the case in all but one of eight Bundesliga victories this term. And while they did end by winning two of their final three encounters here at RheinEnergieStadion, only bottom side Schalke fared worse in terms of points-per-home-game than Koln (0.82) whose brittle backline was breached in 17 of 19 home Bundesliga games this season.
Holstein Kiel – Die Storche seldom suppressed on the road?
A second appearance in the promotion/relegation play-off, and first since losing 4-1 on aggregate in 2017-18 to Wolfsburg, was the very least this team deserved after a strong campaign in Bundesliga 2. In fact, should they not prove successful over two legs this time, there will be regrets all round after they went into the final two fixtures four points clear in second place only to lose both.
Defeat at home to Darmstadt on Sunday – an opponent who were admittedly finishing the season strongly with their fifth consecutive win – ensured Ole Werner’s side finished a couple points behind the automatic promotion spots. Although they would come home four points better off than perennial promotion favourites Hamburg. Yet that loss was surprising, in the sense that it was a first at home for eight games.
Conversely it has been their away form which proved their undoing over the course of the entire season. As despite amassing more points on the road than all barring three other sides – two of whom went up – Holstien Kiel only accrued five points through their final eight away matches (W1 D2 L4). This despite finding the net consistently on the road, netting in 15 of 17 away fixtures (2+ goals on eight occasions).
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FC Koln Vs Holstein Kiel Betting Advice
Three wins from five earned FC Koln a final shot at redemption, having clambered out of the automatic relegation places on the final day of the season with a late victory over Schalke. Moreover, it means The Billy Goats are the form side of the pair coming into this first leg, with Holstein Kiel struggling to hold their nerve as they lost back-to-back games to relinquish the second automatic promotion berth in Bundesliga 2.
FC Koln Vs Holstein Kiel – Key Facts:
- On the last occasion these teams met inside RheinEnergieStadion, hosts FC Koln ran out 4-0 victors in a Bundesliga 2 contest in March 2019.
- Three of the eight Bundesliga victories earned in 2020/21 by Koln came at home, the Billy Boats registering only two clean sheets from their 17 home Bundesliga fixtures.
- Holstein Kiel navigated their final seven away Bundesliga 2 matches by winning only once (D2 L4), though did score in 15 of 17 away league fixtures in 2020/21.
Although the quality of FC Koln could tell – after all, only two of the last 12 promotion/relegation play-offs were won by the team representing Bundesliga 2 – I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss Holstein Kiel who did eliminate Bayern Munich from this season’s DFB Pokal. I’ll bank on goals instead, though. Both teams scored in five of the past six Koln home games while Kiel netted in 15 of 17 away games this term.
Best Betting Odds – FC Koln Vs Holstein Kiel
FC Koln – 7/10 (BetVictor)
Draw – 13/5 (PaddyPower)
Holstein Kiel – 4/1 (Betway)
