FC Porto Vs Tondela
Monday 16th December 2019 – 20:15 Kick-Off
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Pick: Tondela +2.25 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 4/6
Bookmaker: Unibet
Portuguese Football Betting at 22Bet
(All betting odds displayed were correct at the time of writing: 15th December 2019 at 11:00)
Preview: Second in 2018-19, FC Porto are aiming to go one better this season but have already allowed the defending champions to move four points clear at the summit. Any further slip-ups could prove costly, making this home fixture with Tondela almost a must-win.
FC Porto Preview – More dominance in front of Dragao audience?
Unable to find much such success away to Belenense last weekend, coming from a goal behind to earn a 1-1 draw against an opponent further down in the standings (12th) than the team they next come up against. FC Porto (2nd – W10 D2 L1, GF25 GA6) subsequently found themselves conceding even more ground to league leaders Benfica, who remain on course to retain their league crown from the previous term. All this makes three points here, in this fixture, almost imperative for coach Sergio Conceição.
Mood within camp should have been restored during the week however, after their thrilling 3-2 win against Feyenoord at their Estadio do Dragao on Thursday. That win was enough to seal their place in the latter stages of the Europa League, topping their group ahead of Rangers. They remain at home this weekend, which can only be viewed in a positive light: their league form at home has been sublime thus far, recording six wins from six and all without so much as shipping a single goal.
Another efficient performance could very well be in the offing. Porto have won this same fixture ‘to nil’ in each of the past three seasons, although the latest two were both much closer scorelines than they would have ideally liked, winning both 1-0. This season, however, only Aves have arrived as guests and not been dispatched by at least two clear goals, as a team determined to reclaim the league title continue to churn out consistently dominant displays on their own patch.
Tondela Preview – Surprise package to deliver another upset?
Rising to eighth in the table after their memorable 3-2 win away to high-flying Famalicao last weekend, showing a lot of character and resolve to score a late winner despite seeing their earlier two-goal advantage wiped out. It might not be too much longer before Tondela (8th – W5 D3 L5, GF14 GA14) start to believe a top-half finish could be plausible. That would be no mean feat either, not for a club with modest previous finishes of 16th, 16th, 11th and 15th.
Remarkably it has been away from home (W4 D2 L1) where Tondela have found themselves excelling thus far. Losing only once in said matches, which was a slight defeat at Pacos Ferreira (1-0), these plucky underdogs have defied the odds to register victories in Famalicao (2-3), Maritimo (2-3) and Rio Ave (2-4). They’ve also scored eleven times on their travels, which is significantly more than the three mustered when on home soil.
A big scalp eludes them on the road but a couple of notable performance against Benfica (L0-1) and Sporting CP (W1-0) in front of their own fans highlight this team’s capability to potentially make life difficult for the elite of this league. Furthermore, only on one of four previous visits to Porto have they been truly overwhelmed, when going down 3-0 during the 2016-17 season. The other three encounters at the majestic Estadio do Dragao were settled by single-goal margins, including their stunning 1-0 triumph on their maiden appearance there in 2015-16.
FC Porto Vs Tondela – Key Facts:
- As the home side, FC Porto have won all six Primeira Liga games by an aggregate of 15-0.
- Away from home this season, Tondela have registered more victories (4 vs 5) and scored more often (11 vs 3).
- Three of the four previous meetings when FC Porto are hosts finished with a 1-0 scoreline, with Tondela triumphant in the very first of these but losing by this scoreline in the latest two.
Betting Summary
If we were to simply follow the form of FC Porto (2/11 Betway), then predicting the outcome should be extremely straightforward. Dominant at home but seemingly a more limited outfit when not, the Portuguese powerhouse can boast a flawless record inside their Estadio do Dragao of six wins from six, achieved by a combined aggregate of 15-0.
However, Tondela (16/1 WilliamHill) have exceeded expectations so far this season and deserve a great deal of respect for doing so. They’ve recorded more wins (4 v 5) and scored with far more frequency (11 v 3) in away fixtures, with the latest seeing them stun third-placed Famalicao and winning 3-2.
Tondela’s earlier clashes with Benfica and Sporting – teams of a similar stature and level to Porto – were closely-fought and settled by a single goal. Both were staged at home, though. Yet performances on the road have been significantly better, while the head-to-head tells us that Porto have only won one of four previous home meetings (W3 L1) by a margin greater than one goal. With a couple goals head start, the visitors are interesting.
