Holstein Kiel Vs FC Koln
Holstein Kiel Vs FC Koln Saturday, 29th May 2021 – 17:00 (BT Sport)
German Bundesliga Relegation/Promotion Play-Off
Pick: Holstein Kiel or Draw
Odds: 8/11
Bookmaker: Betway
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 27th May 2021)
Preview: Simon Lorenz’s goal settled a surprisingly low-scoring first-leg, in which Holstein Kiel produced a maiden victory over FC Koln to leave the Bundesliga 2 outfit in pole position to seal the club’s first promotion to the Bundesliga. Can the Billy Goats turn it around inside Holstein-Stadion?
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Table of Contents
Holstein Kiel – Maiden Bundesliga campaign beckons?
Since the Bundesliga introduced the play-off in 2008/09, there have only been three occasions in twelve two-legged ties whereby the Bundesliga 2 side were subsequently promoted. So the odds were already stacked against them. However, they are now tilted in their favour following a slender victory in the first leg in Cologne, with Simon Lorenz choosing the opportune moment to score his second of the season.
A first win over Koln at the fifth attempt. More significant, however, was that they became the first team from the second tier to win a play-off match in nine years, bringing an end to a 17-game winless stretch for Bundesliga 2 outfits in this fixture. That shows the size of the task facing sides like Holstein Kiel, but also the work that still needs to be done in this second leg despite now boasting home advantage.
Momentum is undoubtedly with Die Storche (The Storks), though, winning seven consecutive league games here at Holstein-Stadion prior to a 3-2 loss to Darmstadt in their final fixture of the season. Coach Ole Werner overseeing 11 wins and four defeats in 17 home outings in all in 2020/21. Seven of which were accompanied by a clean sheet, suggesting the underdogs are well-placed to defend their aggregate lead.
FC Koln – Billy Goats facing another demotion?
The Billy Goats finished the regular season on a high. Ten points accrued through their final five fixtures (W3 D1 L1), culminating in that late victory over an already relegated Schalke on the final day, sufficient enough to sneak into 16th and thus avoiding automatic relegation at the expense of Bundesliga stalwarts Werder Bremen. So far at least, they are not grasping their second chance with both hands.
Friedhelm Funkel lost his only previous taste of the Bundesliga play-off, losing narrowly to Gladbach as coach of Bochum in 2011/11, and the current Cologne boss looks set for his second demotion as manager with the club unless he can coax a vastly improved performance from his side. Koln shaded possession and shots attempted at RheinEnergieStadion but were matched for shots on target (3 apiece).
So, can they turn it around? Koln had a reasonable away record this season (W5 D4 L8). A tally of five wins being two more than they managed back in Cologne. All five came via a one-goal margin while all but one were in spite of conceding at least once – including those in Dortmund and Gladbach. Yet they finished with one win in seven on the road (D1 L5), and without a goal scored in three of the final four.
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Holstein Kiel Vs FC Koln Betting Advice
Following a 1-0 reverse in Cologne on Wednesday, the Bundesliga side have it all to do if they are to preserve their top-flight status. Holstein Kiel more than matched them in the first leg, and were the width of a crossbar from doubling their lead. Now, the Bundesliga 2 outfit find themselves on the cusp of becoming only the fourth side (of thirteen) from the second tier to claim promotion via the play-off.
Holstein Kiel Vs FC Koln – Key Facts:
- After a 1-0 win in the first leg, Holstein Kiel can become the first team from Bundesliga 2 since Fortuna Dusseldorf, in 2012, to earn promotion through the play-off.
- In this season’s Bundesliga 2, Holstein Kiel recorded 11 wins from 17 home games (D2 L4). Seven of eleven wins at Holstein-Stadion were without conceding a goal.
- FC Koln were more adept at winning on the road in the Bundesliga this season (W5 D4 L8). However, the Billy Goats won only one of their final seven away matches, failing to score in four of these.
Koln would produce a better away record this season than in Cologne. However, they were also one of four teams in the Bundesliga to plunder fewer than a goal-per-game, firing a blank in four of the final seven away matches (W1 D1 L5). This is in sharp contrast to Holstein Kiel’s seven wins in their last eight home games, having also eliminated Bayern Munich from the DFB Pokal here in January.
Best Betting Odds – Holstein Kiel Vs FC Koln
Holstein Kiel – 5/2 (BetVictor)
Draw – 12/5 (Betway)
FC Koln – 11/10 (Betfair)
