Italy v Germany
Saturday 2nd July 2016 Kickoff 2000hrs
Football – European Championships – International
Without doubt, the tie of the quarter final stage is the meeting between Italy and Germany. These two heavyweights of the European game have plenty of history. It has been well documented that Germany have never defeated Italy at a major championship and that’s the challenge that awaits Joachim Low and his men as they look to make the semi-finals of the Euro’s for the third straight tournament. The Italians have been one of the surprised of the tournament thus far having not been given much of a hope of challenging before the start of the competition. Impressive victories against Belgium and Spain have definitely changed that, however, and they will be a massive threat to the Germans – who have been amongst the favourites from the outset.
Antonio Conte has only been in charge of the Italian national team for a couple of years and will bring his reign to a close when Italy complete their participation at Euro 2016. The former Juventus head coach will join up with Premier League Chelsea at that point but he will be hoping he does so as a European Champion. As mentioned, there was very little expectation on the Italians to do much in France this summer, and coming on the back of a disappointing World Cup in 2014, qualifying for the knockout stages would probably have been seen as something of a success. However, two excellent performances against sides who were being talked about as potential winners of the whole thing – Belgium and Spain – have catapulted Conte and his men right into contention. The 2-0 win over Spain, who have won this competition the last twice, was particularly impressive. They dominated from the off and were much more dangerous, expertly deciding when to counter-attack with numbers. Truth be told, if it was not for David de Gea in the opposition goal, the Italians would have had the game wrapped up by half-time, they were that good.
It’s no surprise to see Germany reach the last eight, and they have done so with relative ease as well. Seven points from their three group games allowed them to top the group and whilst they were not always at their best (far from it at times) they rarely looked troubled. You would expect that from the world champions, and it was always likely to be the case that Low’s men would build their way into the tournament which was what they appeared to be doing with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Slovakia in their first knockout game. An early strike from Jerome Boateng set them on their way and they never looked backed. From that point it was pretty much a case of how many they would get but a great save from Manuel Neuer was also required at 1-0. The captain has yet to concede a goal at Euro 2016 with Germany the only team who have not allowed an opponent to score. That record is probably not an accurate reflection of their defensive showing as there have been chances for virtually every side they have come up against – with the exception of Northern Ireland – and it probability would tell you it’s only a matter of time before that run comes to an end.
So much has been made of how good Italy have been defensively and it’s hard to argue that the back four is their biggest strength. That’s not a traditional back four, of course, as it includes the ‘keeper. Gigi Buffon is arguably the best ever in his position and his longevity has to be admired. At 38 he was the third oldest player to play at these Championships but he has also been one of the best. He oozes class and does pretty much everything with consummate ease. In front of Buffon is trio of defenders who he knows extremely well – Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Barzagli. Having formed the Juve defence for a number of years, they are as good as it comes and when played together, have not conceded a goal in those four games. Everybody enjoys seeing goals scored in games but their performance against Spain on Monday was just as enthralling and has to be admired.
Whilst Germany have an embarrassment of riches to choose from going forward, Low has tinkered with personnel as he bids to find the best fit for the style he likes to play. Despite Thomas Muller being an obvious shout for playing as a the central striker, Low values the forward’s movement and clever thinking in a deeper role so it was left to the two Mario’s to battle it out. Gotze was given the nod initially but he looked lost, in all honesty, and was replaced by Gomez for the last two games. Although he’s not everybody’s cup of tea, the Besiktas man has scored in both his appearances and his inclusion allows Germany to play more direct which definitely suits them better. I would be surprised if he is replaced ahead of Saturday’s game.
Italy v Germany Betting Tips
If Germany are to make it through to the semi-finals then they will have to make history of their own by beating Italy for the first ever time at a major finals. The Italians seen them off at the last Championships as well as the classic World Cup semi-final in 2006, on top of many other successes. The bookmakers favour Low’s men to progress but Italy will have no trouble at all playing the underdog – they will relish it.
Whoever wins this game will play the winners of Iceland and France, who play Sunday, but many are already suggesting that whatever team is victorious will go on and win the whole thing. It’s hard to argue that as I believe Italy and Germany have been the most impressive of the sides competing in France this summer. Saturday’s game will come down to how Germany’s attack can disrupt that brilliant Italy defence. Spain were unable to do it whilst Belgium only had fleeting chances in the opening round of games. The German’s also have to be wary of how quickly their opponents like to break and that could be crucial as Low likes to play with his fullbacks high up the park.
I am very much looking forward to this one and hope it lives up the billing. It’s a classic battle of styles which should only add to the spectacle. Germany are a better team in my opinion but there is that hoodoo hanging over them which will be a factor. Rather than pick a winner I expect the Germans to make this an open encounter which will allow Italy space to break. With that in mind, both teams to score at odds against is the selection.
Both teams to score 13/10 @ 888sport
