Italy vs Scotland
14th November 1245hrs
Rugby – Italy – Autumn Nations Cup
Pick Scotland -10 handicap
Bookmaker Bet365
Odds: 10/11 odds taken 04:21 GMT Thursday, 12th November
Scotland get their Autumn Nations Cup kick off on Saturday in action from Group B.
On the back of a positive Six Nations campaign, with the Scots winning three of their five fixtures, Scotland look in good shape at the moment.
Italy found themselves overpowered and outplayed in their Six Nations campaign and will be heavy underdogs for Saturday’s match.
Table of Contents
Italy Preview – Can Italy find a spark
There was no win for Italy during their Six Nations campaign and once again they struggled to put points on the board.
The Italians averaged about 9 points per game in the Championship and they are big 3/1 underdogs in the match outrighht for Saturday* (odds taken 04:21 GMT Thursday, 12th November).
On the other side of that, it was an average of 35 points per game against them during that campaign.
In their last match, Italy played host to England and they were actually scrapping well in the first half of that fixture.
It wasn’t until the second half of that match that Italy started to let England get away from them.
But that just about sums up what Italy is about and where they stand in the game.
They are able to put together decent performances in matches, but not for extended periods.
So we expect them to lose the match which is being played in Florence.
Italy are now on an eight match losing streak against Scotland in test action. During this season’s Six Nations meeting in Rome, they were kept off the scoreboard by the Scots.
It was a 0-17 home loss that Italy suffered at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome against the Scots.
That is the second time in the last five meetings that Italy have failed to score in a match against Scotland.
The handicap line isn’t a particularly big one, with an Italy +10 at 10/11* (odds taken 04:21 GMT Thursday, 12th November).
Scotland Preview – In-form Scots can open with a win
It is worth looking back at the recent margins between these two from meetings.
Only one of the last seven wins that Scotand have taken against Italy was by a margin of less than 13 points.
So we do think that the handicap line of Scotland -10 for 10/11 does offer a bit of value for rugby betting* (odds taken 04:21 GMT Thursday, 12th November).
It is certainly better than what the odds on a Scotland win are in the match outright.
In this season’s Six Nations, Scotland posted a W3 D2 record, getting their successes against Italy, Wales and France.
The one thing that we should note is that Scotland were the lowest scoring team besides Italy in the Six Nations 2020 championship.
It was only an average of 15 points per game that Scotland managed during their campaign.
But on the other side of that, there was a huge positive for them in the defensive area.
Scotland finished the Six Nations campaign with the best defensive record, conceding just 59 points in their five matches.
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A Scotland 11-20 winning margin looks a reasonable option for this one at 13/5* (odds taken 04:21 GMT Thursday, 12th November).
In their final Six Nations match the Scots went to Wales and produced a rare 14-10 victory in Llanelli.
For the Autumn matches, Scotland are missing the injured Finn Russell at number 10. That is a big disappointment after he had just go reintregraed with the squad.
Duncan Weir is expected to come back for a first start since 2016.
Italy vs Scotland Betting Advice
Italy are able to hustle and bustle their way through matches. At times they can be a bit disruptive to higher-quality opponents.
But seeing them stick things out over the course of 80 minutes and do enough to claim a win, doesn’t look too likely.
Not with Scotland currently in a good place.
Key Facts – Italy vs Scotland Betting Tip
- Italy have lost their last eight against Scotland
- Italy have failed to score in two of their last five against
- Scotland have won by at least a 13-point margin in 6 of their last 7 victories over Italy
The positive win that Scotland took in Wales to sign off their Six Nations campaign with, really leaves them in good spirits.
We see Scotland taking things forward and beating the Italians again. It is a long winning streak that the Scots are on against Italy.
We expect that to continue and the 11-20 winning margin for the Scots looks to be the way to go at 13/5* (odds taken 04:21 GMT Thursday, 12th November).
The best betting odds for Italy vs Scotland
Italy to win: 3/1 at Bet365
Draw: 25/1 at Bet365
Scotland to win: 1/4 at Bet365
