Italy Vs Wales Betting Tip: Wales +1.25 AH – 20 June 2021

Welsh capable of halting Italian momentum

Italy Italy Vs Wales Wales

Sunday 20th June, 2021 – 17:00
UEFA Euro 2020, Group A
Pick: Wales +1.25 Asian Handicap
Odds: 5/7
Bookmaker: BetVictor
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 18th June 2021)

Preview: Group A concludes at the Stadio Olimpico for Italy and Wales, with the latter needing a point to guarantee a top-two finish. The Italians are already assured of a place in the next round but can wrap up top spot with a third straight win at these finals.

UEFA Euro 2020 Betting at Betfair


Italy – Top spot beckons for imperious Azzurri?

The Azzurri are already assured of a place in the knockout rounds, qualifying with a game to spare – and without a goal conceded – following successive 3-0 victories against Turkey and Switzerland. Roberto Mancini’s men have arguably been the team of the tournament until this point. Far stern assignment await, though, starting with a Welsh side looking to prevent them from topping the group.

Italy only require a point to progress as Group A winners. For a team which has not lost since a 1-0 loss to Portugal in September 2018, a run of 29 matches unbeaten, there is almost a sense of inevitability about that outcome. However, there is of course the temptation now for Mancini to rest key players ahead of the knockouts – potentially undermining any efforts for not only top spot but also a number of records.

Ciro Immobile scored for the second match running at these finals in the rout of Switzerland and will be keen to continue his own momentum. The latter is something this team boast in abundance meanwhile. The Italians are in scintillating form, recording ten consecutive wins without conceding. Thus, regardless of the personnel changes on Saturday, Mancini will demand such high standards are maintained.


Aaron Ramsey Anytime Goalscorer



Wales – Dragons on cusp of last-sixteen?

Wholly unconvincing in their opening game of the tournament, when coming from behind in Baku to earn a 1-1 draw with Switzerland. It is fair to say Wales improved and then some in their following encounter. In producing the second-highest xG figure ever for a European Championship match, they put Turkey to the sword at the same venue – recording a 2-0 win that leaves them on the cusp of qualification.

Robert Page has now won five and lost only two of his eleven games since taking charge in November 2020. A point against the Italians and he will have guided the Dragons into the latter stages of another tournament, having gone as far as the semi-finals five years ago at Euro 2016 under Chris Coleman. A famous win in Rome, meanwhile, would see them progress as winners of Group A.

The bare minimum is a draw. This isn’t beyond the realms of possibility either. Wales have only lost three of fifteen matches since the conclusion of Euro 2020 qualifying (vs Belgium, England and France), conceding on average 0.73 per game. Even if a point does evade them, there is still every likelihood they will push this irrepressible Italian side much closer than the other teams in this group.

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Italy Vs Wales Betting Advice

As impressive as Italy have no doubt been so far at this tournament, they look a touch too short for this. Already assured of a place in the next round, there is now every likelihood Roberto Mancini will rotate ahead of the knockouts. Wales aren’t afford that same luxury and a similar display to that which seen them dismantle Turkey last time would see them go close to the securing the point they crave.


Italy Vs Wales – Key Facts:

  • After back-to-back 3-0 wins, Italy only need a point to top Group A. Wales need only to avoid defeat to secure a top-two finish, after picking up four points so far.
  • Ciro Immobile has starred in both Italy wins so far, scoring against both Turkey and Switzerland to help extend the Azzurri’s winning run to ten matches.
  • Aaron Ramsey was easily the most threatening player on the pitch in Wales recent win over Turkey, finding himself on the end of chances worth a combined xG total of 1.64 – netting the opening goal.


Since qualifying for these finals, Wales have played 15 times and lost only three – to Belgium, England and France no less. Those were also the only three occasions in which this side conceded more than once. So they clearly have what is required to at least make like difficult for the Italians, who have played with a swagger so far, but could conceivably take their foot off the gas what with a top-two finish safe.

Best Betting Odds – Italy Vs Wales

Italy – 1/2 (Betfair)
Draw – 3/1 (Betway)
Wales – 15/2 (PaddyPower)