Italy Women V China Women
Tuesday 25 June 2019 – 17:00 Kick-Off
International: FIFA Women’s World Cup
Pick: Italy Women to WIN – 21/20 Betfair
Preview: There doesn’t appear to be much separating these two teams on paper and, therefore, we could be in for a very close encounter between Italy and China as the teams ranked 15 and 16 in the latest FIFA rankings, respectively, battle it out for a spot in the quarter-finals of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup.
The Italians have reached this stage after topping an evenly contested Group D (W2 D0 L1, GF7 GA2), finishing level on six points with Australia and Brazil but coming out on top thanks to a superior goal difference. China, meanwhile, progressed out of a tough Group C but only as one of the best third-place teams (W1 D1 L1, GF1 GA1), finishing behind Germany and Spain.
Italy have come out on top in both previous meetings, without conceding a goal, although the most recent was as far back as 2009. The Azzurre were 2-0 winners.
Italy Women Preview
The celebrations at the end of their final group match against Brazil summed it up. Scenes of jubilation as the Italians seemingly surprised even themselves by not only qualifying from an awkward Group D but doing so as group winners, despite rounding off the campaign with a 1-0 loss to the Brazilians. Earlier wins over Australia (2-1) and Jamaica (5-0) meant they topped the section with a superior goal difference.
Even better news for Le Azzurre would be the sight of their Round of 16 opponents. The Chinese boast more World Cup pedigree, sure, but it could have been a far more daunting clash with France had they not clinched first place in the group. So there is the very real prospect of the Italians reaching the quarter-finals of a World Cup for only the second time, only two years after a miserable experience at the European Championship in Holland where they finished bottom of their group.
The basis for their success at these finals has been an organised and disciplined team set-up, whereby the Italians make themselves difficult to break down and look to inflict damage on the break. They’ve also been incredibly clinical so far, which is something they may have to repeat here in a game that may contain few chances. Christiana Girelli scored a hat-trick in the 5-0 victory over Jamaica, and the 29-year-old Juventus striker, who has 31 goals in 55 caps, will be their main goal threat.
Their two group stage wins has improved upon what was already a pleasing record in 2019: W9 D2 L1. They are the form team in this match, having won on four more occasions this year than their opponents.
China Women Preview
The positive will be maintaining a perfect record of qualifying from their group in every World Cup they have participated in. The negative, however, was the manner in which it was achieved. China have not convinced at any stage so far; they were thoroughly outplayed in the opening game by Germany and fortunate to avoid a heavier margin of defeat (1-0), limped to a 1-0 win against outsiders South Africa, and were indebted to a superb performance from their goalkeeper in a 0-0 draw to Spain.
In the end, China scrapped through to the knockouts in third place, and it continued what has been an indifferent year to date. Their record in 2019 now reads W5 D2 L3, although four of those victories were obtained back on Chinese soil, and there is simply no escaping their struggles in Europe.
That slim victory over a South Africa side ranked 49 in the world is the only occasion the eight-time Asian champions have tasted victory in matches played in Europe this year (W1 D2 L4), suffering defeats versus Norway (1-3), Denmark (0-1), France (1-2) and Germany (0-1). Of course, all those teams previously mentioned are among the strongest in the women’s game, but it is a worrying trend nonetheless.
Another concerning aspect of their general performance in the competition has been an inability to impose themselves in games, particularly in the attacking third. Just one goal scored and, of more concern, not a great deal of creativity shown thus far. They rarely troubled the defences of Germany or Spain. Unfortunately for them it is another European adversary awaiting them here, and the stubborn, well-organised Italians are unlikely to be too obliging either.
Betting Tips
Main Selection: Italy Women to WIN – 21/20 Betfair
Betting Summary
Goals could be in short supply here. The Italians aren’t set up to go and score many, while China have offered very little going forward. There hasn’t been more than one goal scored in any match involving China at this tournament so far. Unfortunately, this has been accurately reflected in the betting, as Under 2.5 Goals is rather on the thin side at 4/9 with Betfair.
The Chinese do, however, boast the greater share of experience when it comes to knockout football, particularly at World Cups (this will be their sixth appearance in the latter stages of the competition). If the score does remain close approaching full-time, this could be an advantage to them. Their form in Europe, though, is a big concern, and while the Italians did have their momentum halted last time out, the celebrations post-match showed just how much it means to progress as far as they have.
Confidence should be high within the Italian camp, who have won four more times in 2019 than the opposition. Another dogged and clinical performance here, against what has been a blunt and uninspiring Chinese side up until now, could be enough to prolong their adventure in France.
