Kenya V Senegal Betting Tips: Senegal & Over 2.5 Goals – 1 July 2019

International Football Tips

Kenya V Senegal

Monday 1 July 2019 – 20:00 Kick-Off

Africa Cup of Nations, Group C

Pick: Senegal & Over 2.5 Goals – 15/8 Betfair

 

Recent Trends

  • Kenya have never progressed beyond any group stage in five previous Africa Cup of Nations appearances (W1 D4 L9 record in group games), but know a win here would secure them a top-two finish in Group C.
  • Senegal saw their seven-game winning streak ended by Algeria in their last match but can secure their place in the knockout phase by avoiding defeat here.
  • Four previous meetings between the two have been dominated by Senegal (W3 D1), who are yet to concede a goal to Kenya.

 

Senegal WIN TO NIL
6/5

Bet365

 

Kenya Preview

The team ranked 105 in the FIFA rankings appeared to be heading home at one stage but are now on the verge of creating a mini piece of history. Kenya have never progressed beyond the group stage in any of their previous five appearances at an Africa Cup of Nations but would be guaranteed a spot in the knockout phase were they to record a win over the highest ranked nation on the continent.

Even a draw might be enough for the Harambee Stars to sneak into the next round as a best third-place side. It seems a tall order, though, for a country which has only ever won one game at the tournament before (W1 D4 L9), which was only a matter of days ago and was earned in the most thrilling of circumstances.

Kenya had already been beaten by Algeria in their opening game and were well aware of the dire consequences facing them at 2-1 down to Tanzania next time out, but a strong second-half showing saw them score twice without reply to secure a significant victory – their first at the finals of an AFCON, and one which kept alive their hopes of qualifying from the group.

That win also maintained their strong showing in 2019 which has seen them face four different teams at this tournament and only lose once: losing to Algeria in this tournament but earning creditable results in friendlies with DR Congo (1-1) and Madagascar (W1-0). Their hero against Tanzania was striker Michael Olunga, whose two goals made it three in his last four appearances and took his tally altogether to 17 in 36 caps for his country.

 

Senegal Preview

Progressing out of their group was supposed to be a formality for the highest ranked nation at these finals. However, a shock defeat in only their second game has left Senegal in a precarious situation heading into the final group game against a team they would ordinarily be expected to beat without much fuss.

So the pressure is already firmly on for Senegal who know only victory would ensure safe passage onto the next round. A defeat, however, could see them knocked out before the knockouts. That does seem highly unlikely; Aliou Cisse’s men are facing a team 83 places lower down than them in the FIFA Rankings, whom they have never lost to in four meetings (W3 D1). Although neither statistic entitles them to be complacent here, especially with so much on the line.

It was a surprise to see how poor they were against Algeria last time. Lethargic; sloppy all over the pitch; rarely a threat in attack. This was a side that had won its past seven games in a row beforehand (six without as much as conceding a goal) yet you could scarcely believe that on this evidence, as Algeria created enough to win by a bigger margin.

Their previously imperious form has certainly taken a whack then, but so has their pride. Therefore a huge improvement is required here, and a Senegal team with a point to prove could make them a very dangerous proposition. It also wouldn’t come as a shock were there to be one or two changes in personnel, with the ineffective M’Baye Niang most at risk of the chop.

 

Betting Tips

Senegal & Over 2.5 Goals – 15/8 Betfair

 

Betting Summary

Kenya (17/2) were swept aside by Algeria in the opener but their comeback success over Tanzania will have instilled belief into the players that they can maybe achieve the seemingly impossible here. A point might be enough, while a win certainly would. Whatever the score at any stage in proceedings, Kenya will know they need to persevere and that could potentially lead to a few goals should Senegal get in front early, leaving Kenya chasing a result.

Senegal (4/9) should be winning this no matter what. They’re a class above, simply. The odds reflect this though, therefore some creativity is needed in order to extract value. Six of their last seven victories were accompanied by a clean sheet and a win to nil is reasonable enough (27/20 Ladbrokes). They were also leading at half-time in their opening game with Tanzania and Senegal/Senegal in the HT/FT market is quoted the same odds.

I prefer the look of Senegal + Over 2.5 Goals. Senegal could have a point to prove after losing last time out. Moreover, Kenya themselves should be feeling a little more confident after netting three last game, albeit against inferior opposition, and if they do have to chase a goal at some stage could leave gaps for Mane & Co.


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