Leicester Tigers vs Newcastle Falcons
10th April 1230hrs
Rugby – England – European Challenge Cup
Pick Leicester – 7 handicap
Bookmaker William Hill
Odds: 10/11 odds taken 11:12 GMT on April 9th, 2021
It is an all-Premiership clash that we are looking at for European Challenge Cup rugby betting on Saturday.
The Leicester Tigers will be hoping to carry through some good recent form to get the better of Newcastle.
The Flacons stopped a losing streak of matches with a victory at Ospreys last weekend in European action. Can they produce another strong away day?
Table of Contents
Leicester Tigers Preview – Tigers look strong at home
The Tigers are strong favourites on home soil to make it through to the next round of the European Challenge Cup.
In the match outright for ruby betting, Leicester are 4/11 odds-on* (odds recorded 11:12 GMT on April 9th, 2021).
Last weekend they played host to Connacht and produced a 48-32 in a high-scoring thriller of a match.
But Leicester always looked to be in control well enough.
In three of their last five fixtures in all competitions, Leicester have scored at least 30 points.
In their final league fixture before the break for the European action, Leicester beat Newcastle 26-12 at Welford Road.
This will be the first meeting between the two clubs in the Challenge Cup.
Having won both of their pool stage matches as well, the Tigers are 100% for this European campaign.
Even stronger is that they have claimed a win in 9 of their 11 Challenge Fixtures (L2).
It’s a five-match winning streak at home from them in the competition.
Each of the last five wins that Leicester have banked in the European Challenge Cup have been earned by an average margin of 24 points.
That is an extremely healthy record. In rugby betting, a Leicester -7 handicap is at 10/11* (odds recorded 11:12 GMT on April 9th, 2021).
The Tigers should have the upper hand at Welford Road in this one.
From their seven previous matches in European competition against fellow Premiership teams, Leicester Tigers have won five.
Six of those seven matches were settled by a margin of fewer than 10 points, so we think that Leicester -7 handicap is right.
Leicester have now won four of their last five fixtures in all competitions, so are going well at the moment.
It is going to be an exciting start to the weekend.
Newcastle Falcons Preview – Can the Falcons pull off an upset?
Newcastle have been going through a tough sequence of form, and have lost four of their last five in all competitions.
Their losing streak was ended then they visited Osprey last weekend in the European Challenge Cup quarter-finals.
There was a narrow 28-24 win for the Premiership side in a really engrossing contest.
The Falcons were shocked in the first 20 minutes of the match, falling behind 14-0.
But they mounted a stunning recovery.
That result moved Newcastle Falcons onto a W9 L2 record in their last eleven fixtures in the Challenge Cup.
It’s a fantastic record but they find themselves as the 9/4 underdogs for Saturday’s quarter-final showdown* (odds recorded 11:12 GMT on April 9th, 2021).
Part of the reason for that is their recent Premiership loss at Leicester.
Another is that they have lost their last seven away games in the European Challenge Cup against English opposition
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Looking a bit closer at the losing streak that Newcastle are on away against English clubs in the Challenge Cup, we see the margin.
In none of those seven fixtures did Newcastle manage to score more than 16 points.
Also, the average margin of defeat for them across those seven games was 20 points.
So the stats certainly don’t point favouritism towards the Falcons on Saturday.
A Newcastle +8 handicap is running a quote of 10/11 for the quarter-final fixture* (odds recorded 11:12 GMT on April 9th, 2021).
Leicester Tigers vs Newcastle Falcons Betting Advice
The fact that Newcastle have lost seven straight away games against English sides in the competition, speaks volumes.
They did a tremendous job to fight back against Ospreys last weekend, a game that looked beyond them in the opening stages.
But Leicester at Welford Road are not going to be as forgiving, so we are swinging with the Leicester -7 handicap at 10/11* (odds recorded 11:12 GMT on April 9th, 2021).
Key Facts – Leicester Tigers vs Newcastle Falcons Betting Tip
- Leicester Tigers have won 9 of their last 11 fixtures in the competition
- Leicester Tigers have won their last five Challenge Cup fixtures at Welford Road
- Newcastle Falcons have lost their last seven away matches against English clubs in the competition
The Tigers have been scoring well recently, and comfortably beat the Falcons in league action a couple of weeks ago.
So we expect the same outcome.
We would make a play for a Leicester 1-12 winning margin at 15/8 for European Challenge Cup rugby betting* (odds recorded 11:12 GMT on April 9th, 2021).
The best betting odds for Leicester Tigers vs Newcastle Falcons
Leicester Tigers to win: 4/11 at Bet365
Draw: 22/1 at Bet365
Newcastle Falcons to win: 9/4 at Bet365
